Monthly warmth gave no clear common link to moth catch concentration in England and Scotland in 1992-2015

We tested whether warmer months had more moth individuals from a few taxa. We used 685 trap-months at seven English and two Scottish ECN sites in 1992-2003 and 2004-2015. The outcome was the same-taxon probability for two distinct caught individuals. Models controlled trap by calendar month, rain, sampling dates and linear time. Slopes were -0.23, -0.08, +0.05 and +0.27 percentage points per C. All four adjusted intervals included zero. Six sensitivity variants also gave intervals that included zero. This does not establish a common warmth response or its absence. Wide intervals, selected catches, coarse country weather, few Scottish sites and taxon-specific capture limit inference. The package gives verified source-table reuse, raw-source hash checks, an exact raw rebuild check, code, all fits and a figure. We test no air pollution or causal climate-change effect.

moth · catch concentration · temperature · observation bias · ECN · null result · regional replication