Temperature differences gave no clear common link to moth turnover in England and Scotland in 1992-2015

We tested whether larger monthly temperature differences between adjacent years went with larger changes in moth catch composition. We used 516 pairs of trap-months in England and Scotland in 1992-2003 and 2004-2015. A squared-distance measure removed the expected finite-catch contribution under independent multinomial sampling. Models controlled trap by calendar month, rain, visit timing, effort and linear time. Corrected slopes were -0.051, +1.136, -1.636 and +0.647 outcome units per C. All four main intervals included zero after correction for four tests. Three sensitivity variants gave positive intervals in later England. The pattern did not hold across regions and periods. Few Scottish sites, short time ranges, coarse weather, selected catches and taxon-specific capture limit inference. The result does not establish a zero or causal climate effect. The package gives count and visit evidence, exact source hashes, a raw rebuild check, code, all fits, numerical checks and a figure.

moths · community turnover · temperature differences · finite catch bias · observation bias · regional replication · null result