A Gaussian model limits added W2 flux at ten 2020–2024 NEOWISE visits of TYC 8241-2652-1 to 6.7% of the 2014–2019 level

TYC 8241-2652-1 lost most of its warm dust emission around 2009. Published WISE work found no significant change through 2019. We test for a return in the final NEOWISE record. Fixed quality rules retain 287 of 375 target measurements and 22 visits. Eight stars selected from AllWISE catalog properties supply a local calibration. Ten test visits span January 2020 to June 2024. Twelve visits from 2014–2019 define the reference. Mean flux changes are −0.56% ± 0.88% in W1 and −0.80% ± 0.88% in W2. Errors are model standard errors. A Gaussian covariance model includes measurement error, whole-star bootstrap calibration error, reference error, and a 2% independent visit floor. Its simultaneous one-sided 95% bound limits added W2 flux to 6.61% of the reference at every test visit. For a constant 4950 K stellar reference and added 450 K blackbody dust, the added luminosity fraction is below 0.0053 at every test visit. A separate two-band 95% bound on the sampled mean fraction is 0.00075. Official scan corrections give similar results. An added coherent 2% test-period offset weakens these dust bounds to 0.00721 and 0.00277. The result limits a large warm return at the sampled dates. It does not constrain short events in the gaps or a cold dust reservoir. The package preserves source code, catalog responses, request records, response curves, covariance matrices, model checks, and figures.

TYC 8241-2652-1 · NEOWISE · debris disks · infrared variability · dust · calibration · reproducible research