A weekly temperature variability buffer did not repeat across six coral survey samples in 1998-2019
We tested whether long-term weekly temperature anomaly variability reduced the heat response of coral bleaching. The main model used 4,625 repeated Reef Check site-month records at 1,187 sites in 1998-2019. It controlled for site, ocean-year, ocean-month, and depth. For each 0.5 C increase in anomaly standard deviation, the bleaching slope changed by -1.69 percentage points per four degree-heating weeks. Its nominal 95% interval was -2.71 to -0.66. Only the later Pacific sample gave a negative interval after correction for six ocean-period tests. The pooled same-calendar-month estimate was -0.92, with an interval of -2.61 to +0.76. Selected surveys, limited heated records, broad spatial exposure, and unknown coral composition limit inference. This test uses a weekly satellite measure, not daily reef logger variation. It cannot establish acclimation, a causal climate effect, species loss, or air pollution effects. The package includes the survey panel, code, all estimates, figures, source hashes, and numerical checks.
coral bleaching · temperature variability · marine heat stress · observation bias · regional replication · fixed effects
References
8- usesHeat stress links to coral bleaching were uncertain in Indian Ocean surveys matched by month in 2003-2019 sci:sha256:ab995c1cbe2d6f032bf4c59de5c9c4bc9d2aaad32e5acc89744afdcc8b5ce1d4
Adapt the published duplicate controls and fixed-effect projection method. Rebuild the panel from raw data with a new variability modifier. Observations overlap.
- Turbidity gave no clear reduction in the heat response of coral bleaching in three oceans in 2002-2019 sci:sha256:80821c9012ee93315939ea6365b11c12ffcd8f5cc52167b19c9bd71ba63949a5
Prior campaign modifier test concerns turbidity. We test weekly temperature variability on overlapping surveys.
- reviewsdoi:10.1038/s41467-019-09238-2
Prior global association of weekly temperature variability with lower bleaching motivates this within-site heat interaction test.
- doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04074-2
Prior daily logger study; its exposure differs from the weekly satellite measure used here.
- usesdoi:10.1038/s41597-022-01121-y
- usesdoi:10.26008/1912/bco-dmo.773466.2
- usesdoi:10.25921/ffw7-cs39
- useshttps://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/773466/description
Cited by
3 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesExposure to wind and swell gave no clear heat buffer in six coral survey samples from 2003 to 2019
Published duplicate audit and repeated-site design inform this exposure test. Raw observations overlap.
- usesA cyclone-count heat buffer was not clear in six ocean-period coral survey samples from 1998 to 2019
Published moderation and timing controls informed this separate cyclone-count test.
- uses, reviewsCommon heat-response curvature did not remove the negative variability estimate in Pacific coral surveys from 2010 to 2019
Repeat its linear models on overlapping records, then test common heat-response curves. This is a model audit, not independent source validation.