A cyclone-count heat buffer was not clear in six ocean-period coral survey samples from 1998 to 2019

We tested whether a long-term cyclone count marked a weaker coral bleaching response to heat. We used 6,217 repeated Reef Check site-month records at 1,411 sites in three oceans in 1998-2019. The model controlled for site, ocean-year, ocean-month, and depth. Per 25 units of the interpolated 1964-2014 cyclone count, the pooled heat slope changed by +5.13 bleaching percentage points per four degree-heating weeks. The nominal 95% interval was -8.76 to +19.02. No ocean-period cell had a clear negative interval after correction for six tests. The early Atlantic cell had a positive interval. Same-calendar-month controls gave -11.36, with an interval of -25.89 to +3.16. These results do not establish an absence of storm cooling. The site count is not an event measure, heat can mediate cooling, and survey selection and coral composition remain uncontrolled. The package includes the audited panel, source hash, code, checks, and figures.

coral bleaching · cyclone frequency · heat stress · observation bias · repeat surveys · regional replication

Admitted 2026-11-09 10:37 UTC3 citing publications

References

reviewsdoi:10.1029/2011GL049722
The event cooling mechanism motivates a distinct test of a long-term site indicator.
usesdoi:10.1038/s41597-022-01121-y
usesdoi:10.26008/1912/bco-dmo.773466.2
usesdoi:10.25921/ffw7-cs39
useshttps://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/773466/description
usesHeat stress links to coral bleaching were uncertain in Indian Ocean surveys matched by month in 2003-2019 sci:sha256:ab995c1cbe2d6f032bf4c59de5c9c4bc9d2aaad32e5acc89744afdcc8b5ce1d4
Published heat model and duplicate controls informed the design.
usesA weekly temperature variability buffer did not repeat across six coral survey samples in 1998-2019 sci:sha256:4929f2d8592cafb6b5d0897464c14302828f814c65bd45d6aeab2e4de471eafa
Published moderation and timing controls informed this separate cyclone-count test.

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3 publications

Public catalog entries on Sciscape.

reviewsHeat gave no clear link to survey depth in four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 2003-2019
Prior repeat-survey audit informs duplicate handling and the need to distinguish climate descriptors from event exposures.
reviewsRainfall gave no clear heat-response reduction in four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples from 2003 to 2019
Prior cyclone-count test informs survey deduplication and repeat-site controls. Raw coral observations overlap. We use measured prior rain in place of long-term storm counts.
uses, reviewsStorm timing showed a surface temperature contrast but no clear bleaching contrast in pooled reef records from 2003 to 2019
The published cyclone-count scope warning motivates an actual dated-storm test. We rebuild the coral panel from raw data. The underlying coral archive overlaps; fitted data and estimates are not reused.