The forward size correlation falls from 0.232 for peak intervals to −0.001 for quiet gaps in 3,589 selected GJ 1243 flares

We compare flare size with four time intervals in the public GJ 1243 Kepler catalog. A fixed selection keeps 3,589 of 6,107 events. It requires each focal event and both adjacent events to lie within one interval with no archived cadence gap above two minutes. Size is the catalog equivalent duration. Its Spearman correlation is 0.232 with the time to the next peak and −0.001 with the quiet gap from event end to next event start. One-day block bootstrap 95% intervals are 0.202 to 0.262 and −0.033 to 0.032. The paired decrease is 0.233, with an interval of 0.218 to 0.248. The forward-minus-backward correlation is 0.158 for peak intervals and −0.008 for quiet gaps. An added control preserves event size, order, rise span, and decay span. It shuffles valid quiet gaps within fixed 30-day calendar groups. Its mean forward peak correlation is 0.235. The observed value lies within its central 95% range of 0.207 to 0.264. The result quantifies a duration effect in this selected catalog. It does not prove that flares are independent or identify a physical flare mechanism. Event grouping, missed events, old data calibration, and selection at gaps limit the result. The package contains the unchanged source data, source hashes, derived tables, all trial coefficients, code, figures, and reproduction instructions.

GJ 1243 · Kepler · stellar flares · waiting times · equivalent duration · event duration · rank correlation · reproducible analysis