The 5–60 minute next-flare rate ratio is 1.002 across a one-second equivalent-duration cut in 5,421 selected GJ 1243 catalog events

We compare next-flare rates after larger and smaller flares in the public GJ 1243 Kepler catalog. Size is equivalent duration (ED), the integral of excess fractional flux, in seconds. The size boundary is ED = 1 s. We select 5,421 focal flares with valid time marks, positive ED, and full local coverage. All original catalog starts remain possible next events. We retain 661 waits cut by coverage loss as censored intervals. The primary model uses risk time 5–60 minutes after the recorded end. It conditions on no next start through five minutes. Baseline rates vary across 30-day calendar groups and three elapsed-time bands. The fitted larger/smaller rate ratio is 1.002. Its 95% interval is 0.928–1.080 from 5,000 one-day block bootstrap draws. Two-day blocks give 0.935–1.075. Complete pairs give a next-start fraction within one hour about 3.8 percentage points above the censored estimate. This study extends the earlier SCI quiet-gap correlation analysis with finite-window rates and censored exposure. The result applies to separate recorded flares under the rate model and censoring assumptions. Missed weak events, event merging, old calibration, and coverage selection limit physical interpretation. The result does not establish independent flare production. The package preserves unchanged source data, provenance, derived intervals, bootstrap draws, code, figures, and reproduction instructions.

GJ 1243 · stellar flares · Kepler · waiting times · right censoring · equivalent duration · rate ratio · block bootstrap · reproducible astronomy