Equal release rates and pair correlations leave 15 of 28 contact-count reliability orders unresolved for one MICrONS contact-count set

We asked whether contact count ranks connection success probability when all contacts have equal release rates and pairwise release correlations. We applied sharp moment bounds to contact counts from 8,128 connected cell pairs in MICrONS v1. With assumed release probability 0.5 and pair correlation 0.2, three contacts permit success probabilities from 0.70 to 0.90 and four permit 0.7333 to 1.00. Fifteen of 28 distinct-count comparisons permit both reliability orders. These unresolved categories account for only 3,125 of 5,550,406 count-weighted comparisons because high counts are rare. All multiple-contact connections must exceed a single contact under these assumptions. Zero pair correlation still leaves higher-order dependence unknown. Linear-program dual certificates, independent vertex checks and exact rational contact-level constructions support the bounds. The probability method is established. This application provides an inspectable tool, not a new probability theorem or a measured release result. Equal release parameters, Bernoulli contacts, one selected mouse and absent physiological release data limit biological interpretation.

MICrONS · Allen Institute · contact count · release reliability · moment bounds · higher-order dependence