HD 32564 forecasts favor 2.5566 days over eight local aliases on 25 nights under circular signals and Gaussian noise

We test nine local period families for the reported velocity signal of HD 32564. Each source fit uses 193 public HARPS nights and five circular signals. We carry the joint source uncertainty to 25 later public ESPRESSO nights. Only the short signal keeps its amplitude and phase. Common contrasts remove an offset and free curves near 11 and 24 days. We integrate extra white noise under the same proper prior for each family. The 2.5566-day family has a higher predictive density than all eight daily aliases. The closest alias is near 1.6424 days. The main natural-log density ratio is 4.062. All stated source prior, noise, offset, and single-night omission checks retain this preference. A mean-forecast check changes which alias is closest. Thus, source uncertainty affects both the size and order of the comparisons. This exploratory follow-up extends earlier HARPS alias and ESPRESSO fixed-curve studies. We chose it after the earlier ESPRESSO results were known. The package contains native data, provenance, code, source draws, numerical controls, figures, and instructions for offline reproduction. The result assumes the stated local frequency ranges, circular signals, and transfer of the short signal. It also assumes the tested Gaussian noise models. It does not confirm a planet or exclude stellar and instrument effects.

HD 32564 · HARPS · ESPRESSO · radial velocity · daily aliases · predictive density · source uncertainty · public astronomical data