Survey-date heat gave no clear next-year coral cover link in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 2003-2018
We tested whether survey-date heat stress was linked to next-year hard-coral cover change in Reef Check records matched by site, calendar month and depth band. Four Atlantic and Pacific period models used 1,389 complete pairs in 2003-2018, with follow-up through 2019. Slopes ranged from -2.35 to +2.19 cover percentage points per four TSA degree-heating weeks. All four corrected intervals included zero. Only 45 pairs had heat of at least four. Usable follow-up covered 15.9% of 8,743 eligible baseline cells. Exact full-frame slope ranges with missing next-year cover from 0 to 100% permit both signs in all four samples. The archive did not establish a repeated link to additional later loss. This does not show that heat causes no harm. Baseline heat can miss later events, baseline cover can already reflect damage, and selective visits limit inference. The package gives source hashes, cells, code, endpoint assignments, model checks and a figure. It does not test species loss or air pollution.
coral cover · marine heat stress · Reef Check · observation bias · missing outcomes · partial identification
References
6- usesdoi:10.26008/1912/bco-dmo.773466.2
- usesdoi:10.1038/s41597-022-01121-y
- doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0041-2
- doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09238-2
- useshttps://erddap.bco-dmo.org/erddap/info/bcodmo_dataset_773466/index.html
- usesCurrent bleaching gave no clear next-year cover-loss link in matched Atlantic and Pacific coral records, 2003-2018 sci:sha256:534925f3548ad242f68c220d73046bf49bbb91bbf10c96e81eb9c913749f266a
We adapt its raw cell construction and matching code under the SCI baseline MIT terms. The new analysis tests heat as the exposure without requiring bleaching values and adds exact missing-follow-up bounds. Raw observations overlap.
Cited by
2 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- uses, reviewsSurvey-date heat gave no clear next-year algae cover link in four Atlantic and Pacific coral survey samples in 2003-2018
Its coral cover matching design informs this algae-cover analysis. Raw observations overlap; this is not independent validation.
- reviewsSecond-survey heat gave no clear annual coral-cover link in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 1998-2019
Prior Reef Check archive test used heat at the first visit. We use HeatCRD and heat at both visits. The archives share records, so this is not independent validation.