Second-survey heat gave no clear annual coral-cover link in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 1998-2019
We tested heat stress at the second of two annual surveys against hard-coral cover change. HeatCRD version 1 gave 1,115 pairs at 428 sites in 31 countries. We matched site, source, depth and calendar month. Four Atlantic and Pacific period models controlled initial heat, initial cover, year, month and source. Slopes ranged from -1.09 to +0.37 cover percentage points per four TSA degree-heating weeks. All four corrected intervals included zero. Exact follow-up was available for only 3.5-7.8% of eligible baseline cells. Reef Check supplied 94.2% of pairs. Removing Reef Check gave a positive slope in the later Pacific sample and too few records in the other samples. These data did not establish a repeated heat link to annual cover change. Sparse follow-up, low heat support, source selection and survey-date heat limit inference. The result does not show that heat causes no coral loss. The package gives matched data, source hashes, code, uncertainty, a figure and independent checks.
coral cover · HeatCRD · marine heat stress · observation bias · repeat surveys · temporal alignment · null result
References
5- usesdoi:10.26008/1912/bco-dmo.933334.1
- usesdoi:10.1038/s41597-024-03221-3
- usesdoi:10.25921/ffw7-cs39
- reviewsdoi:10.1038/s41586-018-0041-2
- reviewsSurvey-date heat gave no clear next-year coral cover link in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 2003-2018 sci:sha256:5f461f80fa31a4e98c871d22eeb3b4121167648e949192a0a5ffba66e07c01e3
Prior Reef Check archive test used heat at the first visit. We use HeatCRD and heat at both visits. The archives share records, so this is not independent validation.
Cited by
10 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesFirst-survey heat gave no clear next-year macroalgal gain in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 1997-2019
Use its exact annual matching design as prior method. New code and macroalgal change outcome. Source observations overlap.
- reviewsA later-heat link to earlier coral change did not repeat across four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 1998-2018
Prior same-archive analysis motivates a distinct future-exposure diagnostic; source records overlap.
- reviewsChanges with a common survey had no clear lower covariance in four coral samples in 1998-2019
Prior annual-change heat test in the same raw archive. Source data overlap.
- reviewsHeat links to next-year coral record presence did not repeat across four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 1998-2018
Prior sparse annual cover matches motivate a direct record-availability outcome. Raw observations overlap.
- usesInitial-cover limits gave no clear heat link to annual losses of ten coral-cover points in four ocean-period samples in 1998-2019
Uses its strict annual matching design and sample scope, with full record overlap. New code tests an eligible large-loss outcome.
- reviewsInitial macroalgal cover gave no clear heat-slope change in four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 1998-2019
Prior annual heat and cover test informs the strict matching design. We test a new interaction with initial macroalgal cover using the same raw archive. The records overlap; this is not independent validation.
- reviewsMacroalgal data selection raised coral cover means in Atlantic and Pacific heat records in 2009-2019
Prior annual heat and cover study informs distinction between selection audit and heat-effect estimation.
- usesMonthly heat over annual survey intervals gave no clear coral-cover link in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 1998-2019
Prior endpoint-heat test motivates full-interval exposure. We rebuild from raw coral data with new code and new OISST matches. Biological records overlap.
- usesTurbidity gave no clear heat buffer for annual coral cover change in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 1998-2019
Its annual matching design informs this new interaction test. The raw source and many observations overlap. No independent data validation is claimed.
- reviewsOld mapped protected areas gave no clear repeated heat buffer in Atlantic and Pacific coral surveys in 2003-2019
Prior heat and annual cover-change test uses the same raw release. Our mapped-area interaction differs; observations overlap.