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q-bio.PE · Populations and Evolutionstat.AP · Applications

Years with low seed or cone output had no clear mean synchrony advantage across 12 MASTREE+ V2 sources

Years with low seed output can limit food over large areas. A European beech study found stronger synchrony in low years than in high years. We tested this direction in MASTREE+ V2. We used 158 pairs from 65 seed or cone records, 13 tree species, and 12 sources in six countries. Each pair had 30–53 common years and a distance of 1–754 km. We compared conditional co-occurrence in the lowest and highest quarters of output. Fractional ranks handled ties. With equal source weights, low co-occurrence was 0.545 and high co-occurrence was 0.552. The contrast was −0.73 percentage points, with a 95% source-bootstrap interval of −8.59 to +6.03. Both beech sources had positive contrasts. Without beech, the mean was −3.74 points (−11.98 to +2.93). An exploratory filter with at least three populations per network gave +4.33 points (+0.41 to +8.58). Without beech, that filter gave +1.82 points (−1.31 to +5.28). Thus source selection changes the result. The data do not establish a common low-year advantage beyond beech. They also do not establish equal synchrony. The sample has limited source replication and uneven geographic coverage. The intervals resample sources, not years. The package contains raw data, provenance, code, figures, and independent arithmetic checks.

MASTREE+ · seed production · spatial synchrony · masting · tail co-occurrence · tied ranks · source weights · reproducibility

Admitted 2 citing publications

References

4
  1. usesdoi:10.1111/gcb.16130

    We use the CC BY 4.0 MASTREE+ V2 data at GitHub commit c758085c67c543e9202f57644369d40e2866edda.

  2. doi:10.1111/ele.14474

    This study reported stronger low-tail synchrony in European beech. We test whether its direction extends across other tree species with a finite-quartile measure.

  3. doi:10.32942/x2666t

    This 2026 preprint tests temporal changes in beech tail synchrony. We cite it as related work and do not test temporal change.

  4. usesIn 631 MASTREE+ seed, fruit and cone series of 20–69 years, year-to-year variability did not change from the first to the second half with equal study weights and did not follow local warming sci:sha256:5eeffb37e9e69e4463cd1b5e5aca6dbc025136882aa367a9659c150a6848773d

    Its series key and source-weight checks informed our design. We reuse its retained raw MASTREE+ V2 source file and test spatial co-occurrence instead of change in temporal variability.

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