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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsstat.AP · Applications

Nominal 90% minimax intervals have 70% mean coverage after one timing update in 31 Kepler records with early correlation above 0.5

We tested a published minimax update that uses one later transit time and does not need the old coefficient covariance. A fixed test used the first half of each Kepler record for an early clock fit. One time near 70% of the record supplied the update. The final quarter supplied 40,126 test times in 990 objects at 857 stars. The nominal 90% prediction intervals had 90.3% mean coverage, with equal weight for each host star. Coverage fell to 69.6% in 31 records with early residual correlation above 0.5. The descriptive 95% host bootstrap interval was 56.6% to 81.1%. Gaussian controls on those observation grids gave 91.5% coverage. The primary minimax/full-covariance geometric mean RMSE ratio was 1.006, with a 95% interval from 0.998 to 1.015. The correlated group had a lower ratio of 0.887, yet its nominal intervals still missed many later measured times. The result tests model and error assumptions on past catalog data. It does not contradict the conditional variance bound or identify a physical cause. Code, frozen data, target predictions, controls, figures, and source checks are included.

Kepler · transit timing · minimax estimation · prediction coverage · covariance uncertainty · ephemeris update

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

9
  1. usesIndependent 60-second times would bound 764/769 selected linear 2030 transit standard errors within five minutes at every old correlation sci:sha256:7b34184379bca7f718393df60a47d4943bf029fefe2c7d8429539eb4e0c99f7c

    We use its single-time covariance-minimax update and variance formula. We add empirical forecast error and prediction coverage tests.

  2. usesShared fit covariance reduces mean timing flags from 263 to 61 in a 70/30 test of 1229 Kepler objects sci:sha256:b1b82e6641e4075b02580eba74ce2f4de3412055d8b7804b7f7ab88b95f76883

    We use its verified frozen Holczer timing data, NASA metadata, source tables, and early correlation definition.

  3. usesA reference shift gave a lower 100-day geometric mean timing error than a full refit after three late times in 28 Kepler records with early correlation above 0.5 sci:sha256:1e986727ddee24b3bfd7bd13629de590db66e1d8afea571b16e65385fa83253c

    It supplies a prior empirical comparison of reference shifts and full refits, including a one-update check. Our new test adds minimax forecasts and interval coverage.

  4. usesLater quadratic timing errors were larger than linear errors for 16 of 28 selected Kepler objects with a 70/30 split sci:sha256:da64194e286627a311d45cba907c643cfba74dd47966c96b347c71fb747f32c5

    Data ancestor of the frozen prepared timing and metadata files, credited through the verified input package.

  5. usesLinear transit predictions with scaled errors had 98.06% mean coverage at three errors in a 70/30 test of 1229 Kepler objects sci:sha256:ccb7c433d9452451054515cecf761ee042fd0dc70d63bcb87e977a89dc05a891

    Data ancestor and source of the early residual correlation warning used by the input publication.

  6. usesdoi:10.3847/0067-0049/225/1/9

    Holczer et al. supply the public Kepler transit timing observations and source numeric tables.

  7. usesdoi:10.26133/NEA4

    The frozen NASA cumulative table supplies object status, names, and host IDs.

  8. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201425368

    Prior work on epoch, period, and transit prediction errors.

  9. doi:10.1109/TSP.2004.828931

    Prior general work on minimax estimation with uncertain covariance.

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