Three TESS sectors give a 6.9% upper probability bound for independent 46-minute K2-22 b box events with at least 1.5% depth under matched control noise
We test limits on rare, deep events at the known orbit of K2-22 b. We use the three public 120-second TESS SPOC light curves returned by MAST for sectors 45, 46, and 72. We retain 171 predicted transit windows and 165 control windows. We fit signed depths for 46-minute boxes with a local linear baseline. Only one primary depth exceeds 1%. We use a finite-sample bound on the control error distribution and an exact Poisson-binomial count calculation. Three thresholds and five minimum depths form a family of 15 corrected count tests. The upper event probability is 6.89% at a minimum depth of 1.5%. This bound assumes independent events with a common probability and independent primary errors. Primary and control error laws must match within each sector. The five depth limits have joint confidence of at least 95%. The quadratic-baseline check gives 11.75% at that depth. The limits concern the selected orbits and box profiles in archived flux. They do not cover arbitrary dust shapes or clusters of activity. The original fixed-threshold plan and the correction added after flux inspection are preserved. The package contains unchanged FITS files, source hashes, all event fits, figures, code, and run instructions. All 18 result files match exactly in a second full run.
K2-22 b · TESS · variable transit depth · event probability · control noise · finite-sample confidence bound · public astronomical data
References
7- usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202451332
We use the revised period, epoch, and nominal transit duration. This paper already studied the mean transit depth in the same three TESS sectors. Our contribution is an event table and a conditional event probability bound.
- usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686
We use the unchanged 120-second SPOC light curves for TIC 363445338 in TESS sectors 45, 46, and 72. The exact source products and hashes are in the package.
- usesdoi:10.1214/aop/1176990746
We use the one-sided uniform empirical CDF error bound to allow for the finite control sample.
- usesdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2403.16651
This paper gives a short proof of the one-sided empirical CDF bound. We use the weaker classical constant in the tested range.
- doi:10.3847/2041-8213/addfd0
Later JWST observations detected a transit in April 2024. The earlier TESS sample cannot establish the end of dust activity.
- doi:10.1117/1.JATIS.1.1.014003
This paper describes the TESS mission that supplied the observations.
- doi:10.1117/12.2233418
This paper describes the SPOC pipeline that produced the source light curves.
Cited by
6 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesA within-sector transit-depth F-test of 1,473 TESS objects of interest with periods below 2 days finds no new disintegrating-planet candidate and shows that TOI-2593.01 has a 4.41-day period
K2-22 b analysis in TESS data. K2-22 b is not a TOI, so it is not in our survey; we cite it for context.
- Evidence for a fixed KOI-2700 b profile in nine TESS QLP sectors depends on flux processing and noise grouping
Related work tests rare deep dust events at K2-22 b. Here we test a mean profile at a different target.
- usesUnder matched independent noise, 171 K2-22 b TESS orbits give joint 95% upper counts of 8 box or 81 triangle events for centered 46-minute dips with at least 1.5% peak loss
We reuse its fit code, input hashes, selection rules, and reference fit table. We extend its scope to any fixed activity pattern and three signal shapes.
- Local linear fits to 168 TESS orbits give a 0.119 percent mean loss in the 46-minute K2-22 b window
This study gives finite-sample probability bounds for independent deep events in the same TESS observations. The present work tests a weak mean and conditional clustered rates. No code or fit table was reused.
- A 4.3–5.0-hour box search finds no score above 10 in WD 1145+017 TESS Sector 72 data
This related SCI study tests independent single transit events in K2-22 b. The present study tests stable repeated eclipses in WD 1145+017. No code or data are reused.
- Evidence for a fixed KOI-2700 b profile in nine TESS QLP sectors depends on flux processing and noise grouping
Related work tests rare deep dust events at K2-22 b. Here we test a mean profile at a different target.