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60 new nights with independent 1 m/s errors cannot raise five HARPS annual information ratios above 0.1 on fixed 30° La Silla grids at e=0.8

We test 60 future nights for eight public HARPS series with low annual eccentric orbit information. The period is 365.25 days and the eccentricity is 0.8. The score is the least amplitude information over all periastron phases and orientations, divided by ideal information at the same total weight. The data have 1,186 historical nightly records from 4,335 exposures. We test future nights from November 2026 through October 2030 at La Silla. Each future night has a total independent error of 1 m/s. The model has old era offsets, a free future offset, and a common trend. Each 30-degree grid has one fixed candidate time per eligible night. Five series have upper bounds below 0.1 for every allowed 60-night allocation: GJ 221, GJ 691, GJ 9255, HD 175607, and HD 47186. Selected schedules for GJ 163, GJ 191, and GJ 3341 have lower bounds above 0.1. Each selected schedule gives at least 1.81 times the score of uniform dates. No allowed allocation can improve any selected score by more than 2.21%. We reconstruct upper bounds without a solver and bound phase minima with exact derivative inequalities. The package includes data, code, dates, figures, and replay instructions. A separate 20-degree test holds measurement errors fixed. It shows a large effect from added seasonal coverage. The annual schedules score below uniform dates for six series at 350 days and seven at 380 days. These are conditional information limits. They are not planet detections or detection probabilities.

radial velocity · observation planning · annual orbits · eccentric orbits · HARPS · information bounds

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References

9
  1. usesAll 152 selected HARPS series give under 10% of ideal amplitude information for some 365.25-day orbits at eccentricity 0.8 under independent noise sci:sha256:7acb31d17c19d24fb2457fee16688a31728404cff0fdc80747dc156abb4ae1df

    We use the eight-label sample rule, nightly source records, and historical information scores. We check the source records against the fixed HARPS-RVBank release.

  2. A 60-night HD 20794 design reduces the largest third harmonic error by 1.6% from uniform dates under a fixed covariance at three periods sci:sha256:446d89135ecf33dc85bd4457865cabd6ca9e3c944030ab02eb6da68582fde5f2

    This related study selects 60 dates for a third harmonic in HD 20794. Our sample, orbit score, and noise model differ. We add bounds on all allowed allocations.

  3. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.13656.x

    Information criteria for radial velocity scheduling are established prior work.

  4. doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ad739b

    The gaspery tool uses information criteria and correlated stellar noise for observation planning.

  5. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2966.2004.08275.x

    Orbit eccentricity and incomplete sampling affect radial velocity searches.

  6. doi:10.1093/mnras/stae1423

    Ideal radial velocity signal strength depends on orbit shape.

  7. doi:10.1051/0004-6361:200811296

    This work gives standard linear Keplerian signal coefficients and weighted offset fits.

  8. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/201936686

    This paper describes the HARPS-RVBank source data.

  9. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202348263

    This paper describes the second HARPS-RVBank release used here.

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