Positive size additions leave at least 238.6 days RMS error in six fixed-fit Vela intervals

We test whether omitted positive glitches can repair a fixed size-to-wait fit for the Vela pulsar. The first 12 resolved intervals above a fractional size of 10^-6 set the fit. Its RMS error on six later intervals is 279.94 days. With fixed positive slope, arbitrary nonnegative size additions have an exact minimum RMS error of 238.64 days. The early mean wait has 223.13 days RMS error. Thus positive additions alone cannot make this fixed fit beat that mean on these six intervals. Recorded small glitches change each later prediction by less than 0.20 day. Full-sample total-size fits improve at the higher size cut, so the exclusion must not be extended to new calibrations or other event definitions. A separate published small event changes early accounting little. This is a conditional proof and catalog analysis, not a new glitch or a rejection of superfluid models. Code, aggregate results, figures, provenance and reproduction steps are included. External catalog rows remain outside the baseline bundle.

astronomy · Vela pulsar · glitch · angular momentum · reservoir model · positive correction · forecast error bound