Collection temperature slopes did not clearly exceed future slopes in four US mosquito samples in 2016-2019 and 2021-2024
We tested whether the temperature link to mosquito catch was stronger during collection than one week later. Four samples use NEON RELEASE-2026 records and Daymet V4 R1 weather in eastern and western US sites in 2016-2019 and 2021-2024. Final models use 2,344 site-date means from 17,823 traps at 39 sites, including 4,964 traps with no female catch. Models control prior weather, rain in both windows, sampling conditions, site-month and site-year levels and within-month dates. Collection slopes minus future slopes were +0.094, +0.044, +0.025 and +0.252 units per 5 C on a mean log(1 + females per hour) scale. All four adjusted site/year intervals include zero. All planned variants also gave intervals across zero. These records do not establish a repeated excess collection-temperature link or its absence. Four year groups per fit, daily gridded weather, selected sampling dates, changing plot composition and an unaudited curated source limit the test. Future weather is a timing diagnostic, not a way to isolate population size from activity or capture. The package supplies code, figures, source hashes, aggregate checks and a tested external-data rebuild. It tests no air pollution, disease outcome or causal climate-change effect.
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