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Prior rain concentration gave no clear catch-rate link in four US mosquito samples in 2016-2019 and 2021-2024

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We tested rain concentration at the same rain total in the 21 days from 8 to 28 days before mosquito collection. Four samples use NEON RELEASE-2026 records and Daymet V4 R1 weather in eastern and western US sites in 2016-2019 and 2021-2024. Models use 2,151 site-date means from 16,260 traps at 37 sites, including 4,069 zero-female catches. Controls include site-month and site-year levels, within-month dates, temperature, rain and sample effort. Slopes per 0.1 rain concentration ranged from -0.006 to +0.034 on a mean log(1 + females per hour) scale. All four adjusted site-cluster intervals included zero. Quadratic weather controls, catch presence and a future-rain timing check gave no clear repeated link. One primary site/year variance was negative and is undefined. These data do not establish a rain concentration effect or its absence. Few western sites, only four years per period, selected trap dates, daily weather proxies and an unaudited curated source limit inference. The package gives code, source hashes, aggregate checks and an external-data rebuild. It tests no pollution, disease or causal climate-change effect.

mosquitoes · rain concentration · weather · observation bias · NEON · null result · regional replication

References

10
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