A spring warmth link to honeysuckle flowering overlap depended on uncertainty method in US records from 1968 to 1991

We tested whether March-April warmth changed the shared flowering time of Arnold Red and Zabeli honeysuckles at the same site. Four region and period models used 1,557 complete paired years in 1968-1991. Models included plant-pair and year effects and winter temperature. Spring slopes ranged from -0.040 to +2.084 overlap days per C. In the later East, the estimate was +2.084 days per C, with a four-test interval of +1.505 to +2.664. The other three intervals included zero. The later eastern result became uncertain with pair trends and with state-only or year-only uncertainty. These records did not establish a repeated response. Unknown visit times, selected complete records, few state clusters, coarse monthly weather, and shared source methods limit inference. The measure assumes continuous flowering between reported first and end dates. It does not measure flower abundance, pollinator response, or a causal climate-change effect. The package gives event dates, weather, source hashes, all estimates, code, and numerical checks.

phenology · flowering overlap · honeysuckle · observation bias · regional replication · temperature