One added catalog event changes the Crab consecutive-size correlation from -0.189 to -0.405 before July 2018

We test consecutive Crab glitch sizes in two Jodrell Bank catalog snapshots. At a fixed July 2018 cutoff, one added historical event changes the Spearman correlation from -0.189 for 23 events to -0.405 for 24 events. Revised sizes on the same old event list leave the coefficient unchanged. The current full list has 28 events and gives -0.402, with a whole-sequence shuffle p value of 0.036. Four later events alone give exact p = 0.25. These dependent catalog tests do not confirm a physical mechanism or a new event. Unknown missed events, shared timing fits, exchangeability assumptions and limited later data constrain interpretation. We do not reproduce the precise coefficient in the 2019 paper from the archive input. Original code, aggregate evidence, input hashes and external retrieval steps are included. External source rows are excluded because broad redistribution rights were not established.

astronomy · Crab pulsar · glitch sizes · serial correlation · catalog revisions · sequence permutation