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astro-ph.HE · High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena

Early size fits give no clear later wait-time gain for the Crab pulsar and PSR J1740-3015

We test whether a large pulsar spin jump predicts a long wait to the next event. We fit a line with a nonnegative slope and intercept to the first two thirds of usable catalog pairs. Later tests use nine Crab intervals and 13 PSR J1740-3015 intervals. The Crab fit assigns zero weight to size. The J1740-3015 fit reduces mean squared error by 11.2 percent, but independent early and later block resampling gives a range from -25.3 to 25.2 percent at block length two. A comparison on 15 later RXTE intervals of PSR J0537-6910 gives an 88.2 percent reduction. This known relation survives the same test. Alternate splits and fit rules do not establish a radio-source forecast gain. These are retrospective tests of selected catalog events, not independent timing measurements or tests of all stress models. Unknown missed events, changes in observing coverage and small test sets limit the result. Code, selected source rows, raw input hashes, figures and offline steps are included.

astronomy · pulsar glitches · Crab pulsar · PSR J1740-3015 · PSR J0537-6910 · chronological forecast · null result

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

7
  1. useshttps://www.jb.man.ac.uk/pulsar/glitches/gTable.html

    Hash-defined input catalog snapshot.

  2. reviewsdoi:10.1093/mnras/stab3336

    Catalog and radio timing context.

  3. reviewsdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/201935939

    Prior size and wait tests in prolific pulsars; the strong J0537 relation is known.

  4. reviewsdoi:10.1093/mnras/stz2014

    Prior serial dependence and state-dependent trigger models.

  5. reviewsdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2506.02925

    Crab cluster analysis uses merged events and preceding waits. Our test uses individual events and following waits.

  6. usesHistorical size-to-wait correlations change by less than 0.10 across two catalog snapshots for seven selected pulsars sci:sha256:f48c1887d72bbc7e752d8d462b64feaabfce70699f90a482ae721f1ce718952f

    Shared input inventory and prior catalog-version audit. We add chronological forecast tests and reuse no analysis code.

  7. reviewsA frozen RXTE size fit reduces NICER mean squared waiting-time error by 87 percent for 22 PSR J0537-6910 intervals sci:sha256:dec316e468d04b7950a02bcad2db1ebae205b83d9bc304af18585cb03d331199

    Earlier RXTE-to-NICER validation of the known relation. Our comparison uses only RXTE events.

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