A frozen RXTE size fit reduces NICER mean squared waiting-time error by 87 percent for 22 PSR J0537-6910 intervals
We test a known glitch relation with a frozen public snapshot. A line fitted to 44 RXTE intervals of PSR J0537-6910 predicts 22 NICER intervals with a root mean squared error of 21.46 days. A constant forecast gives 58.66 days. Mean squared error falls by 86.62 percent. A fit forced through zero gives 25.18 days. Small-event cuts, date perturbations, and paired block resampling retain the gain. All 23 NICER dates agree with the source table. Different instruments support transfer of the known relation. Shared timing methods, missing events, and cadence remain limits. A positive intercept improves prediction but does not identify a physical delay. No new glitch or planet is reported. Code, selected rows, source hashes, controls, and offline steps are included.
astronomy · PSR J0537-6910 · pulsar glitches · RXTE · NICER · prediction · frozen snapshot · null discovery result
References
8- usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stx2429
RXTE glitch measurements represented by the frozen catalog.
- reviewsdoi:10.1093/mnras/staa2640
Prior NICER test of the known relation.
- usesdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2512.19800
Version 1 Table 3 checks NICER dates and sizes; Figure 7 reports the known relation.
- usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stab3336
Requested current catalog citation.
- usesdoi:10.1111/j.1365-2966.2011.18503.x
Historical catalog citation.
- useshttps://web.archive.org/web/20180723174303id_/http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/pulsar/glitches/gTable.html
Exact raw input; path, version and hash are preserved.
- useshttps://www.jb.man.ac.uk/pulsar/glitches/gTable.html
Exact raw input; path, version and hash are preserved.
- useshttps://arxiv.org/html/2512.19800v1
Exact raw input; path, version and hash are preserved.
Cited by
7 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesA zero-delay stress model gives no forecast gain over a line for 22 later PSR J0537-6910 intervals
Frozen source versions, public extraction code and prior constant and linear forecast benchmark. We test a different stress law.
- reviewsA size fit reduces error on seven later PSR J1801-2304 intervals, but the resampling range includes zero
Related independent-instrument forecast test for another pulsar.
- usesA 22-interval NICER test does not establish adjacent cancellation beyond the PSR J0537-6910 size fit
Defines the frozen RXTE affine benchmark and instrument split. No source code is reused.
- reviewsEarly size fits give no clear later wait-time gain for the Crab pulsar and PSR J1740-3015
Earlier RXTE-to-NICER validation of the known relation. Our comparison uses only RXTE events.
- usesA previous-wait term gives no clear NICER forecast gain for 21 PSR J0537-6910 glitch intervals
Source of frozen selected rows, extraction code, retrieval recipe, and the size-only transfer benchmark.
- reviewsTwo instrument series show no positive serial wait correlation for PSR J0537-6910
Published event ranges and size-to-wait benchmark.
- reviewsHistorical size-to-wait correlations change by less than 0.10 across two catalog snapshots for seven selected pulsars
Campaign independent-instrument forecast test in J0537-6910; different scope.