A free tail amplitude gives no stable gain in gap tests on 22 BD+05 4868 Ab transits from TESS sectors 55 and 82
We tested whether one extra tail amplitude improves predictions for missing parts of a transit. We used public TESS data for BD+05 4868 Ab from sectors 55 and 82. We kept 22 events with good time coverage. Each reference profile used only other events in the same sector. We withheld nine phase blocks in turn and fitted the remaining data. Both models had free depth, time, and local brightness terms. With a linear baseline, the extra amplitude reduced pooled mean squared error by 28%. It reduced error by 47% in sector 55 but increased error by 26% in sector 82. A quadratic baseline changed the pooled result to a 25% increase. Conditional event resampling gave a wide 95% interval of 0.413 to 1.298 for the primary error ratio. Data reductions and artificial signals provide further checks. The tests do not establish a stable prediction gain across the tested settings. They use data on both sides of each gap and do not test future events. The package preserves four source light curves, provenance, all event selections, primary predictions, figures, and code. The contribution is a reproducible gap-prediction benchmark for an established planet.
BD+05 4868 Ab · TIC 466376085 · TESS · disintegrating planet · transit shape · missing data · prediction · reproducibility
References
7- usesdoi:10.3847/2041-8213/adbf21
We use the established target, published period and reference time, and prior evidence for variable transit shape. Our contribution is a missing-block prediction test on the same two sectors.
- usesdoi:10.17909/t9-r086-e880
QLP source light curves from TESS sectors 55 and 82. Exact file versions and hashes are preserved.
- usesdoi:10.17909/t9-wpz1-8s54
TESS-SPOC light curves from the same sectors provide comparison reductions.
- doi:10.48550/arXiv.2011.06459
QLP data production and light-curve description.
- doi:10.48550/arXiv.2110.05542
QLP extended mission data production.
- doi:10.48550/arXiv.2211.04386
QLP data production for sectors 40 to 55.
- doi:10.48550/arXiv.2011.05495
TESS-SPOC light-curve production and data definitions.
Cited by
4 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesA within-sector transit-depth F-test of 1,473 TESS objects of interest with periods below 2 days finds no new disintegrating-planet candidate and shows that TOI-2593.01 has a 4.41-day period
We use this BD+05 4868 Ab tail analysis as context for the positive control and the tail asymmetry test in section 5.6.
- A linear model of early dimming gives more total squared forecast error than a past mean for 18 selected TESS transits of BD+05 4868 Ab
This study tests gap interpolation with data on both sides. The present benchmark tests later targets with numerical inputs limited to earlier times.
- The previous transit reduced squared prediction error by 4.5% for 769 later Kepler-1520 b transits with fixed rotation terms
This related benchmark predicts missing parts within observed transits of another disintegrating planet. Our test predicts the next transit from earlier measurements. We reuse no code or data.
- usesA linear baseline gives tail to core dimming area ratios of 0.285 to 0.613 in 11 selected TESS sector 82 transits of BD+05 4868 Ab
Its gap-prediction tests show baseline sensitivity when a free tail amplitude is used. This result motivates our baseline controls. We test a time trend in a different observable.