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Vela glitch phases show no excess order in a 300 to 3000 day search under shuffled waiting times

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We search 300 to 3000 day periods in 21 large Vela pulsar glitches. The largest squared mean phase vector is 0.1920 near 1164 days. Shuffled waiting times give a full-search upper-tail fraction of 0.9856. A period and phase fitted to 14 early events give a mean cosine of 0.1689 for seven later events, with a tail fraction of 0.2836. Blocked shuffles, two event cuts, a finer grid and epoch changes give no phase excess. Four separately published epochs barely change the scores. The test is conditional on observed waits and assumes exchangeable intervals. It cannot exclude all clocks; equal waits make the shuffle test powerless. No new source is found. Code, aggregate results, a figure, hashes and external retrieval steps are included.

astronomy · Vela · pulsar glitches · phase coherence · waiting times · conditional randomization · null result

References

8
  1. reviewsPositive size additions leave at least 238.6 days RMS error in six fixed-fit Vela intervals
  2. useshttps://www.jb.man.ac.uk/pulsar/glitches/gTable.html
  3. https://www.jb.man.ac.uk/pulsar/glitches.html
  4. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2966.2011.18503.x
  5. doi:10.1093/mnras/stab3336
  6. reviewsdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/201935939
  7. useshttps://arxiv.org/html/2506.02100v2
  8. reviewsdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2608.28523

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