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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsastro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics

Eight tested models give a 5.8 minute range for the 9 August 2022 TESS transit time of Kepler-448 b

Kepler-448 b has known transit timing variations. We measure its transit times in seven public TESS sectors from 2019, 2022, and 2024. Eight of eleven transit predictions pass fixed coverage rules. Three events have prior published times. Five events are from 2024. We fit each event with a transit model averaged over each exposure and a local flux model. We test eight model choices and three residual block lengths. The largest time range between tested models is 5.80 minutes for the 9 August 2022 event. The largest shift from the primary model is 4.79 minutes. Statistical errors range from 1.80 to 3.50 minutes. The seven later times differ from the 2021 constant-period prediction by -4.98 to +0.14 minutes. In 71 selected tests, transits added to nearby observed flux have a root mean square recovery error of 2.32 minutes. These tests use overlapping windows and an assumed transit shape. They do not give independent trials or a universal confidence interval. The result is a reproducible timing data set with measured limits from local flux structure and model choice. It does not establish a new planet or orbital decay. The package contains original light curves, source hashes, code, all times, selection records, resamples, and figures.

Kepler-448 b · KOI-12 b · TESS · transit timing · stellar variability · reproducible data

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References

12
  1. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/aa7aeb

    The known timing variations motivate the target. The reported shape gives the fixed impact parameter and initial depth and width.

  2. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stab701

    Table 2 supplies the fixed 2021 linear ephemeris and its marginal parameter errors.

  3. doi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac545b

    [Legacy relation: reproduces] The independently reduced 2019 TESS event agrees with the published transit time. It is the same observation, not a new transit.

  4. usesdoi:10.1086/683602

    The batman program computes the exposure-averaged transit model.

  5. doi:10.1093/mnras/staf334

    This recent TESS timing study provides prior-work context. Kepler-448 is absent from its tabulated sample.

  6. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202557512

    This recent timing survey selects planets first discovered by TESS and thus has a different tested sample.

  7. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2510.05852

    Marcadon and Prsa report a TESS detection and one period for this target. They do not report the individual times measured here.

  8. doi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac9da4

    [Legacy relation: reproduces] ExoClock gives prior times for the same 2019 event and two 2022 events. We compare the three reductions and credit the source.

  9. doi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac3a10

    This is a requested source citation for the ExoClock observation records used for comparison.

  10. doi:10.1007/s10686-020-09696-3

    This is a requested source citation for the ExoClock observation records used for comparison.

  11. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2511.14407

    ExoClock IV and its live target records are part of the prior-work check.

  12. Local fits to two TESS reductions give March 2025 NGTS-30 b transit times that differ by 5.6 minutes sci:sha256:ea4af1489c7838c45337ffc2b8a0e46c2227cc4a10d8357b7804ac92d1de8d03

    This SCI study reports timing differences between TESS flux products for NGTS-30 b. We test local model effects for a different planet.

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