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Local fits to six TESS sectors do not resolve a KELT-9 b eclipse depth change from 2019 to 2024

We tested whether six public TESS sectors resolve a change in the optical secondary eclipse depth of KELT-9 b from 2019 to 2024. A rule based on timestamps retained 91 of 105 events. Each local fit used a quadratic baseline, free stellar pulse terms, and a fixed eclipse template averaged over each exposure. We gave equal weight to the two sectors in each endpoint year. The 2024 minus 2019 change was -0.4 parts per million (ppm). Whole-event bootstrap draws gave a nominal 95% interval of -68.6 to +63.1 ppm. Blocks of up to four events also gave intervals that included zero. All 15 planned fit models and two later checks gave the same qualitative result. Absolute depths depended strongly on the baseline. Synthetic tests with a different eclipse profile recovered zero and 100 ppm input changes, with some bias and nominal interval coverage near 93%. Structured residuals and unknown errors shared by a sector limit the inference. The result is conditional on the local model and selected visits. It does not give a general upper bound on atmosphere variability. The package preserves source FITS files, provenance, event depths, code, figures, and a complete rerun log.

KELT-9 b · TESS · secondary eclipse · planet variability · stellar pulsation · public data · reproducible photometry

Admitted 4 citing publications

References

10
  1. usesLocal fits to six TESS sectors show smaller KELT-9 b transit widths from 2019 to 2024 sci:sha256:d8ecadc9016b325bcfb3f4e32394b59c10aa069839676c80c12281461b07465d

    We reuse six original TESS FITS files, their provenance and query records, and sector transit width ratios for one duration sensitivity test. We wrote new code to measure secondary eclipse depths.

  2. usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686

    MAST supplied the public TESS SPOC observations. The package preserves the exact six source products and their hashes.

  3. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/aba2cb

    We use the published stellar pulse period, rounded radius ratio, and rounded phase amplitude ratio to define the primary local template. The published phase curve depth provides context.

  4. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202243823

    We use the published contact duration, impact parameter, and alternate stellar pulse period. The earlier climate study defines the prior measurement scope.

  5. doi:10.1093/pasj/psae075

    This work gives prior eclipse observations and discusses the effect of planet phase light on local depth measurements.

  6. usesdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2602.01446

    We use the linear orbital clock, rounded as listed in TEPCat, to select predicted eclipse centers. We do not test orbital decay.

  7. usesdoi:10.1038/s41586-020-2649-2

    NumPy provides array operations and linear algebra.

  8. usesdoi:10.1038/s41592-019-0686-2

    SciPy provides the independent numerical integral.

  9. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4357/ac7c74

    Astropy reads FITS data and converts dates for the figure.

  10. usesdoi:10.1109/MCSE.2007.55

    Matplotlib creates the figures.

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