Tonga-Fiji supplied 15 of 17 net late M5 event counts around 82 isolated deep earthquakes in 2001-2024

We tested regional support for a published late event excess in fixed USGS ComCat data. Centers have preferred magnitude 6.5 to below 8 and depth greater than 300 km in 2001-2024. Isolation excludes equal or larger events within 200 km horizontally on either side over 365 days. For 82 centers, M5+ neighbors within a depth-aware 200 km distance gave 12 before and 29 after counts on days 7-30. A fixed Tonga-Fiji box supplied 15 of the 17 net counts. Without its 29 centers, 53 centers gave two before and four after counts. Their rate difference was 0.001641 events per center per day, with a conditional 95% three-year block interval of -0.001359 to 0.005017. The global rate was 0.009014, with interval 0.005561 to 0.013103. Removing any one center left a net count of at least 14. No tested radius, magnitude or block check gave a strictly positive lower endpoint outside Tonga-Fiji. Thus, the pooled positive interval did not persist when that region was removed. Sparse counts do not prove zero excess elsewhere or a physical difference between regions. Coarse boxes, catalog error, selection and dependence limit inference. Code, aggregate evidence, a scalar audit, a figure and exact external input retrieval instructions are included.

deep earthquakes · regional influence · late event excess · ComCat · aftershock counts · geographic scope