Spring warmth gave no clear bloom-gap link in paired US honeysuckle records from 1968 to 2005

We tested whether February-March warmth changed the gap between first bloom in Arnold Red and Zabeli honeysuckle at the same US sites. We fixed one plant of each clone per site and used 1,893 paired site-years in four region and period samples. Site and year effects gave slopes from -0.544 to +0.489 days per C. All four adjusted intervals included zero. The interval for the largest sample, the early West, was -0.549 to +0.525 days per C. Absolute-gap and four other checks gave no clear repeated link. This does not show that the gap was stable. The late East had only four sites; the late West ended in 1994. Missing records, selected plant histories, coarse monthly weather, and few uncertainty clusters limit inference. These are weather associations, not climate-change or pollution effects. The package includes exact inputs, raw source hashes, code, all results, a figure, a raw-input rebuild check, and an independent numerical fit.

phenology · honeysuckle · paired taxa · spring temperature · observation bias · null result · regional replication