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q-bio.PE · Populations and Evolution

Spring temperature adjustment reduced annual bloom agreement in three selected US lilac samples from 1965 to 2008

We tested how much local spring temperature explained annual bloom agreement between fixed nearby lilac sites. We used US legacy records from 1965 to 2008 and selected disjoint site pairs with at least 12 shared years. Separate site models removed a linear year trend, then added March-April temperature. Each year was left out of its own fit. Mean pair correlation fell from 0.683 to 0.509 in the early East, 0.565 to 0.341 in the early West, and 0.595 to 0.295 in the later East. The four-test adjusted bootstrap intervals for these reductions were above zero. The later West had one pair and an uncertain result. Summer adjustment changed agreement little. Spring adjustment also reduced held-out date error. Agreement remained after adjustment. These are weather associations in selected planted shrubs, not causal climate-change or pollution effects. Missing visit histories, different lilac types and bloom rules, short series, and invalid bootstrap draws limit inference. Primary intervals omit 1.18-14.05 percent of draws and are conditional on valid fits. Code, exact source hashes, derived data, all valid draws, checks, and a figure are included.

phenology · lilac · spatial synchrony · spring temperature · observation bias · held-out-year models · regional replication

Admitted 5 citing publications

References

9
  1. usesWinter warmth did not show a common change in lilac spring slopes in four US samples from 1965 to 2008 sci:sha256:551302875a5c81f37d7854aa0bbefe4669a61810d9d3573f192717bbbf19b501

    We adapt its raw-input build code and archive selection, rebuild the panel, and check matching base columns. Our outcome is annual agreement between disjoint site pairs.

  2. reviewsLiestal and Washington cherry bloom dates had positive annual agreement in 1988-2025 after local trends sci:sha256:7aab81648fca9dfbd115c4f58803f4fdefc1d1a233c2c9c5963525f92b8f6d00

    It tested annual cherry agreement across continents. Our study tests the local-temperature explanation in nearby lilac sites.

  3. Spring warmth gave no clear bloom-gap link in paired US honeysuckle records from 1968 to 2005 sci:sha256:abd9c2003e78904b427a37a92326aa4764954eaaaf9cfa7b2a95686cf913e326

    Prior campaign work tested within-site bloom gaps between honeysuckle taxa, a different timing outcome.

  4. usesdoi:10.1038/sdata.2015.38

    Source archive design, plant types, observation rules, and limits.

  5. usesdoi:10.5061/dryad.0262m

    Source dataset DOI; files were reused from the shared ScienceBase snapshots.

  6. useshttps://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5499b905e4b093dfafda3575

    Source for the exact v13 observation and v14 field workbooks.

  7. useshttps://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ghcncams.html

    NOAA PSL monthly gridded temperature, stored version 3.01 snapshot.

  8. doi:10.1038/srep25460

    Prior within-year timing-dispersion study; its outcome differs from interannual fixed-pair correlation.

  9. doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09410-3

    Prior work on spatial seasonal differences; cited for scope.

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