No constant period fits 50 published TOI-2015 b transit times within 139 minutes plus three times each quoted error
We tested all 50 TOI-2015 b transit times in Table D.1 of Barkaoui et al. (2025), observed during 2020–2024. We asked how narrow a constant-period schedule could be, with the best possible period and reference time. Each measured time could move by up to three quoted timing errors in whichever direction helped the fit. Even with these favorable shifts, every constant period needs an extra margin of at least 139.011786 minutes on each side. Three ground-based events prove the lower limit with exact fraction arithmetic. A line reaches that limit for all 50 events. Removing any one event leaves a limit of at least 132.861 minutes. Removing any one calendar year leaves at least 112.662 minutes. Ground data, including joint measurements, give 139.012 minutes; TESS-only data give 83.671 minutes. We used a constant duration of 59.256 minutes. The necessary historical window for every complete transit is at least 5.621 hours after the favorable shifts. This is a deterministic interval result, not a joint confidence bound or a future coverage guarantee. The system already has known timing changes and a reported outer companion. We claim no new planet or physical cause. The contribution is a schedule limit, an exact three-event proof, and a reusable interval-fitting tool. The package preserves the source data, source checks, code, numerical controls, figures, and offline reproduction instructions.
TOI-2015 b · transit timing · observing windows · constant period · interval approximation · reproducible research
References
7- usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202452916
We use every timing row of Table D.1. This paper already reports large timing changes and an interacting outer planet.
- doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ad55ea
This earlier system study reports the known transit timing changes and a candidate outer planet.
- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA13
We preserve one 2026-10-23 composite-table response and test linear use of its period and reference time. The archive already flags known timing changes.
- doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201425368
This work treats linear ephemeris errors under strict periodicity. Our main limit allows every period and reference time and uses bounded intervals.
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This work gives prior context for linear ephemerides and timing changes in transiting planets.
- Literature period and reference time pairs reduce mean timing offsets below one minute in the last TESS seasons of HAT-P-16 b, KELT-18 b, and WASP-20 b sci:sha256:faa794af34900a7c2edeac8cedeb487f0e92e7419b232066090e7e24cebb2de1
This study motivates the source-pair check. Our saved archive pair has one source solution; the main bound tests every possible pair. We reuse no code or data.
- Eight of ten quadratic transit timing trends that pass single-transit removal fail a time group test under fixed errors in a 2022 catalog sci:sha256:308b2db7951df24995aa102c40b0db488a2f98a8d9f1c4c10a08a011f981fdb7
This work uses time-group removal to test timing fits. We apply the general idea to a different model, with calendar-year removal and deterministic interval limits.
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