Kepler Q1 to Q17 data give an approximate 95% lower transit fraction limit of 0.386 for KOI-2700 b under a fixed profile and unbiased fit errors

We test whether a small set of deep events can produce the known mean KOI-2700 b transit. We fit a fixed asymmetric profile and a quadratic baseline to 1,313 covered orbits in public Kepler Q1 to Q17 SAP data with quarter crowding corrections. Complete windows with recorded attitude tweaks are removed. The mean amplitude is 425.1 ppm and the second moment is 388025 ppm squared. If true amplitudes are nonnegative and fit errors have zero conditional mean, the squared measured mean divided by the measured second moment gives a lower bound on the fraction of orbits with a positive true amplitude. This standard inequality gives an observed moment ratio of 0.466. A joint pair of moment limits from a 10-slot block bootstrap gives an approximate 95% lower fraction limit of 0.386. Blocks of 5 and 20 give limits of 0.383 and 0.388. The same moment limits give a 0.136 lower fraction limit above 200 ppm. We keep measurement noise in the second moment. We preserve all tested profile, baseline, ephemeris and flux alternatives, phase controls and numerical checks. The constraint applies to the tested optical profile on selected covered orbits. It does not count fresh dust production and can fail if a phase-dependent mean error mimics the transit. This is a new conditional constraint and data product, not a new planet or probability theorem. The package includes raw files, provenance, code, figures, proof and offline instructions.

KOI-2700 b · KIC 8639908 · Kepler · disintegrating planets · transit fraction · second moment · dust tails · public data