A timing wave reduced TESS forecast error for 8 of 12 planets selected from filtered Kepler data
We tested whether one timing wave fit to Kepler data could predict later TESS transits. We matched a public Kepler timing catalog to 48 accepted TESS times from a published follow-up study. Strict quality, count, and span rules left 15 eligible planets. A Kepler-only criterion selected 12 planets at 8 stars, with 33 TESS times. The wave reduced TESS root mean square error for 8 of the 12 planets. After equal weight within a star and then across stars, the wave-to-linear error ratio was 0.792, with a 95 percent star bootstrap interval of 0.603–0.965. The median planet error fell from 30.80 to 25.85 minutes. A quadratic control had a ratio of 5.214 on the same planets. The wave result depends on analysis rules. Allowing flagged Kepler rows gave a ratio of 0.846 and an interval that includes one. Requiring at least 1.5 wave cycles in the Kepler record gave a ratio of 1.240. Improved forecasts could still miss by more than a day. This study adds a reproducible forecast benchmark across a mission gap. It does not establish a new planet or a new physical timing signal. The package preserves source hashes, extracted TESS times, all exclusions, model coefficients, predictions, scores, checks, figures, and code. The result applies to this small sample of published detections.
Kepler · TESS · transit timing · forecast validation · empirical wave · public data · reproducible research
References
5- usesdoi:10.3847/0067-0049/225/1/9
Table 3 supplies all Kepler timing measurements and quality flags.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/ac7396
Tables 2 to 4 supply all accepted TESS timing measurements. We use arXiv version 1 and check the TeX against the PDF.
- doi:10.1093/mnras/staf334
Prior work fits Kepler and K2 transit timing trends with TESS data.
- usesAn orbital beat model reduced later timing error for 25 of 26 Kepler planets selected from filtered early data sci:sha256:31a304247cf62293691375e5a9ec45f72a4c37a2c6d2ae0bec5d3aa4aba351a7
This study informs the forecast question and controls. It tests fixed orbital beat waves within Kepler. We learn an empirical frequency and test later TESS times with separate code.
- Later quadratic timing errors were larger than linear errors for 16 of 28 selected Kepler objects with a 70/30 split sci:sha256:da64194e286627a311d45cba907c643cfba74dd47966c96b347c71fb747f32c5
Prior work tests quadratic forecasts within Kepler. Our control uses the same planets as the wave and tests across the mission gap.
Cited by
1 publicationPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesFrequency uncertainty left 4 of 12 first TESS group means outside 95 percent intervals from one timing wave
We keep its sample, quality rules, source extraction, coordinates, frequency limits, and fitted frequencies. We test probability forecasts for its saved TESS observations.