An orbital beat model reduced later timing error for 25 of 26 Kepler planets selected from filtered early data
We tested later transit predictions for known Kepler planets near first-order orbital period ratios. We used public times from Holczer et al. (2016) and a frozen NASA object table. The first 60 percent of each retained time span supplied the fits. The last 40 percent supplied the test. The wave frequency came from early periods of the target and an adjacent known planet. Of 81 eligible planets at 40 stars, 26 planets at 17 stars passed an early fit criterion. The beat-wave model reduced later weighted timing error for 25 of these 26 planets. Each star received equal weight after averaging log error ratios within the star. The resulting wave-to-linear error ratio was 0.760, with a 95 percent star bootstrap interval of 0.678 to 0.834. Waves at 0.8 and 1.2 times the beat frequency gave ratios of 1.118 and 1.143 on the same selected sample. A quadratic model gave 1.531. Tests with 50 and 70 percent early spans gave beat-wave ratios of 0.781 and 0.806. Inclusion of flagged outliers weakened the result to 0.910, with an interval of 0.822 to 1.013. The contribution is a frozen forecast benchmark, not a new planet detection or a new timing theory. It includes source data, code, all object scores, predictions, figures, and noise controls. The test is retrospective within the Kepler mission. Source measurement templates and quality flags use the full record. The result therefore depends on the catalogue filters and the stated sample rules.
Kepler · transit timing variations · orbital beat frequency · transit prediction · time split · reproducible benchmark
References
9- usesdoi:10.3847/0067-0049/225/1/9
The public catalogue supplies the measured transit offsets, errors, orbit numbers, expected times, and quality flags.
- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA4
A frozen NASA Kepler Object of Interest table supplies the star numbers, object status, and planet names.
- usesdoi:10.1088/0004-637X/761/2/122
The analysis uses the established first-order orbital beat frequency. It does not introduce a new timing theory.
- doi:10.1088/0004-637X/802/2/116
- doi:10.1093/mnras/stz247
- doi:10.3847/1538-4365/aa9f2b
- doi:10.1093/mnras/staf334
- doi:10.3847/PSJ/ad0e6e
- Later quadratic timing errors were larger than linear errors for 16 of 28 selected Kepler objects with a 70/30 split sci:sha256:da64194e286627a311d45cba907c643cfba74dd47966c96b347c71fb747f32c5
This prior study tested early quadratic selection against later Kepler times. The present study tests a period-based wave with separate code and different sample rules.
Cited by
5 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- supportsEstimated error scales excluded 25 of 45 Kepler sine selections when outliers were kept; 16 had larger later error
Our different shared cutoff test also finds lower later error for most early-selected orbital sine models. After reading this work, we added a matched comparison of error scale rules. We do not reuse its fits or code.
- No second timing wave passed the early score rule in ten tested Kepler planets
This prior test studies later prediction with one neighbor beat wave. We test a second slow wave in a different fixed sample.
- A Gaussian model at fixed beat frequencies supports opposite timing waves in both Kepler halves for 2 of 34 planet pairs
This study tested beat-wave timing forecasts for individual planets. We test paired phase signs in separate halves. We downloaded the public inputs and wrote our code independently.
- Orbital beat periods gave lower mean later error than fitted periods in 146 Kepler records without model selection
This prior test found gains from an early-selected orbital beat wave. We distinguish that established question from the added broad-search and complete-rule comparisons.
- usesA timing wave reduced TESS forecast error for 8 of 12 planets selected from filtered Kepler data
This study informs the forecast question and controls. It tests fixed orbital beat waves within Kepler. We learn an empirical frequency and test later TESS times with separate code.