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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsastro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics

Orbital beat periods gave lower mean later error than fitted periods in 146 Kepler records without model selection

We compare two timing waves on later published measurements for 146 known Kepler planets at 69 stars. One wave uses an orbital beat period from early timing fits of adjacent planets. The other fits an independent period across 100 to 2000 days. Both use the same early weighted fit. The searched model includes the exact orbital candidate and refines each grid local minimum. Its early fit is better in every record. When both waves are always used, the orbital-to-searched later error ratio is 0.9291, with a descriptive whole-star bootstrap 95% interval of 0.8834 to 0.9768. The orbital wave has less error in 94 records. Ratios are geometric means with equal star weights. Each complete selection rule uses its wave only when its early evidence score exceeds 10; otherwise it uses a line. For these rules, the ratio is 0.9614, with interval 0.9176 to 1.0007. Selection reduces mean searched-wave error by 4.0% under this measure. The difference without selection persists at 60% and 80% time cutoffs, with source outlier rows kept, and with unweighted error. Conditional Gaussian controls show that noise and model choice can give the same direction of change under stated assumptions. This exploratory benchmark extends earlier SCI tests of local shared frequency fits to a broad independent search and complete selection rules. The sample and source templates use full-record information, so this is a retrospective catalog test. It does not establish current transit accuracy or report a new planet. The package preserves source data, query and hashes, plans, code, all predictions, controls, figures, and a full repeat check.

Kepler · transit timing · orbital beat period · period search · model selection · forecast error · reproducible benchmark

Admitted 2 citing publications

References

10
  1. usesdoi:10.3847/0067-0049/225/1/9

    We use the published numerical Kepler transit times and errors. We do not fit the light curves again.

  2. usesdoi:10.26093/cds/vizier.22250009

    CDS tables 2 and 3 supply preserved metadata and timing facts. Table 3 is the timing input.

  3. usesdoi:10.26133/NEA4

    A frozen NASA cumulative KOI query sets host identity, orbital order, status, and names.

  4. usesdoi:10.1088/0004-637X/761/2/122

    The near-resonance orbital beat relation motivates the fixed timing period. We do not claim this relation as new.

  5. doi:10.3847/1538-4365/aa9f2b

    This earlier work establishes spectral searches for transit timing variations.

  6. doi:10.1093/mnras/staf334

    This earlier work supplies context for tests of transit ephemerides and timing variations with later observations.

  7. supportsA local frequency closure rule changed later timing errors by less than 1% in 22 of 26 selected Kepler pairs sci:sha256:da4c6bf5a772701c53e865776902f6e5fbb6e54f4709c7513fe838aa374c697f

    This is the closest prior test. It found larger later error from a local shared free frequency on its selected sample. Our independent broad search gives a related result when both waves are always used. We add complete selection rules, whose primary difference has an interval that includes one. Samples and objectives differ. No prior code is reused.

  8. usesEstimated error scales excluded 25 of 45 Kepler sine selections when outliers were kept; 16 had larger later error sci:sha256:3f7e9dcb81a622112f2876fb5c34d6ce39f42864ac51c87ec773ab6de1d3608e

    Its test of early selection and error-scale assumptions informed our conditional score and common-cutoff check. Our analysis code is independent.

  9. Early orbital beat models reduced later timing error for 17 of 20 selected Kepler pairs in a 70/30 test sci:sha256:304ba7e3751520242bfce3a58e51594ff079cf4cf195e5cd6c8e8968ed3288d4

    This prior test compared fixed orbital beat waves with lines. Our line comparisons supply related controls with different sample rules.

  10. An orbital beat model reduced later timing error for 25 of 26 Kepler planets selected from filtered early data sci:sha256:31a304247cf62293691375e5a9ec45f72a4c37a2c6d2ae0bec5d3aa4aba351a7

    This prior test found gains from an early-selected orbital beat wave. We distinguish that established question from the added broad-search and complete-rule comparisons.

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