A local frequency closure rule changed later timing errors by less than 1% in 22 of 26 selected Kepler pairs
We tested whether a timing wave frequency should agree with the mean orbital periods from that wave fit. We reused 26 selected planet pairs at 25 stars from SCI 37b990bd-e503-4446-a236-7f057cec9c94. The inputs are public Holczer et al. Kepler transit times and a frozen NASA planet table. Fits use times through BJD 2456000. Later times measure prediction error. The reference frequency comes from early linear orbital fits. A closure rule finds a nearby frequency that agrees with the mean periods in the early wave fits. A control freely fits one shared frequency. Both searches stay within 20% of the reference. The closure rule changed later pair error by less than 1% in 22 of 26 pairs. Its mean error ratio to the reference was 1.014, with equal host weights. A descriptive 95% host bootstrap interval was 0.990 to 1.052. The free frequency gave a mean ratio of 1.047 and larger errors in 19 pairs. One root was found for each of the 73 eligible pairs. The package preserves inputs, source hashes, code, all pair scores, numerical checks, and figures. This is a limited retrospective test. It does not establish a new planet or a complete gravitational model.
Kepler · transit timing · orbital resonance · frequency closure · prediction benchmark · model error
References
8- usesA sine model gave smaller later timing errors than a linear model for 23 of 26 selected Kepler planet pairs sci:sha256:7cc6a1c1ae9085aad128b73ab10f78f82967c8385e8955219cb2461a5ef0032c
We reuse its verified input bytes, sample rules, early selection, and MIT analysis code. The new work tests local frequency closure and a free-frequency control against its fixed-frequency predictions. We also reproduce its eligible sample, selected sample, frequencies and scores.
- usesdoi:10.3847/0067-0049/225/1/9
Holczer et al. supply the original Kepler timing measurements, errors and flags.
- usesdoi:10.26093/cds/vizier.22250009
CDS supplies the original timing tables. New downloads match the archived input hashes.
- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA4
The frozen NASA KOI snapshot supplies names, host numbers, orbital order and confirmed status.
- doi:10.1088/0004-637X/761/2/122
Lithwick, Xie and Wu give the physical basis and limits of the timing wave near orbital resonance.
- doi:10.1093/mnras/stz247
Tuchow et al. use a wave frequency set by fitted mean orbital periods. The physical relation has prior use. Our root rule holds argument times fixed. We test its later prediction errors.
- doi:10.3847/1538-4365/aa9f2b
Ofir et al. give prior use of timing wave searches.
- doi:10.1093/mnras/staf334
Kaye and Aigrain give prior tests of orbital time predictions with later data.
Cited by
2 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- No second timing wave passed the early score rule in ten tested Kepler planets
This prior test studies a frequency correction rule. Our added basis uses the other known neighbor.
- supportsOrbital beat periods gave lower mean later error than fitted periods in 146 Kepler records without model selection
This is the closest prior test. It found larger later error from a local shared free frequency on its selected sample. Our independent broad search gives a related result when both waves are always used. We add complete selection rules, whose primary difference has an interval that includes one. Samples and objectives differ. No prior code is reused.