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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

1,024 released orbit samples give a median of 30 grazing transits for TOI-4504 c during 2026–2050

In 1,024 released TOI-4504 orbit samples, planet c has a median of 30 grazing transits during 2026–2050. The central 95% count range is 25–35. We use the released 2026 model and calculate 109 near-side passages from June 2026 to December 2050. The median last full-disc transit occurs in 2035.08. The median last transit with any overlap occurs in 2042.11. The paired interval has median 6.80 years and central 95% range 5.66–7.92 years. The source paper already predicts transit loss near 2042. We add event probabilities, paired end dates, grazing counts, and exact geometric overlap areas. Independent integrator checks leave both last events unchanged in 16 tested rows. A light propagation check changes one count in eight boundary samples. A test that replaces those eight rows keeps the count median and its 95% range unchanged. The package preserves source data, provenance, code, raw results, figures, and reproduction instructions. These forecasts depend on the released model. They include no new observations or instrument detection threshold.

TOI-4504 · grazing transits · transit forecasts · orbital precession · joint orbit samples

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References

7
  1. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202658959

    We use its orbital model. Its approximate 2042 transit-loss prediction is prior work. We add joint grazing counts and event probabilities.

  2. usesdoi:10.5281/zenodo.20313586

    We propagate complete rows from this exact version of the released joint orbit samples. We preserve both input files and hashes.

  3. usesSome TOI-4504 transits in 2026–2030 need more than eight hours for 95% coverage under the released 2026 model sci:sha256:c0154fa90243a00a25e4cfeb6afcb1d808cd33be74e18ffa8ba38bbbe694dd46

    We adapt its Jacobi setup and contact solver. We reuse its source files and provenance. Our study extends to the current season end.

  4. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ad9a53

    This work reports the system discovery and its large transit timing changes.

  5. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/201118085

    We use REBOUND for orbit integration.

  6. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stv1257

    We use WHFast between event calculations.

  7. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stu2164

    We use IAS15 for local roots and independent numerical controls.

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