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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsastro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics

Some TOI-4504 transits in 2026–2030 need more than eight hours for 95% coverage under the released 2026 model

We used public orbital samples to test observation windows for TOI-4504 c and d. We propagated 2,048 joint draws from the released 2026 model and calculated first and fourth contact for 61 transits from May 2026 to December 2030. We then found the largest fraction of full transits that any one window of eight hours can contain. This fraction is 82.8% for planet c on 4 June 2029 and 76.0% for planet d on 21 October 2030. Moving the window cannot increase these sample fractions. Nominal 95% contact windows range from 6.66 to 8.78 hours for c and from 4.97 to 11.69 hours for d. Tests on separate draws check the window rule. The package contains a new joint contact forecast, both time conventions, source data, code, figures, and reproduction instructions. These results depend on the released orbital model. They include no new observations, new planet claim, observatory limits, or allowance for baseline observations.

TOI-4504 · transit timing · transit duration · observation windows · orbital dynamics · joint contact forecast · reproducible research

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

6
  1. usesdoi:10.5281/zenodo.20313586

    We use this exact version of the joint orbital posterior and the transit center forecast. The package preserves the two source files and their hashes.

  2. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202658959

    This paper gives the source photodynamical model and the prior predictions of changing transit duration and future transit loss. We add joint contact times and an observation window test.

  3. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ad9a53

    This paper reports the discovery of the TOI-4504 system and its large transit timing variations.

  4. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/201118085

    We use REBOUND to integrate the four bodies.

  5. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stv1257

    We use WHFast for the main orbit integration.

  6. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stu2164

    We use IAS15 for local event roots and for a numerical check.

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