Sea warmth gave no clear common link to local catch concentration in four US trawl samples in 1982-2019

We tested whether seasonal sea warmth was linked to more concentrated catch weight within trawl hauls. We used public OceanAdapt catches from Eastern Bering Sea and Northeast US Fall in 1982-2019, with fixed strata and area weights. Four region and period models controlled linear year. Only late Bering had a clear positive main slope: 1.19 concentration points per C, with a four-test interval of 0.53 to 1.85. The other three intervals included zero. Removal of pollock kept a smaller positive late Bering link. Equal stratum weights and consecutive annual differences gave intervals that included zero. Thus, a common clear positive response did not repeat. Catchability, surface temperature, short series and survey changes limit inference. This is a catch association, not a causal climate effect. We do not measure pollution or ecological timing. Code, cleaned catch evidence, climate evidence, source hashes, all checks and a static figure are included.

biodiversity · catch concentration · sea temperature · observation bias · trawl survey · regional replication