Temperature changes gave uncertain links to dominant-taxon change in four US trawl samples in 1982-2019

We tested whether larger annual changes in seasonal sea surface temperature went with changes in the dominant catch taxon. We used Eastern Bering Sea and Northeast US fall trawls in two periods within 1982-2019. Fixed stratum weights control direct changes in haul allocation. A finite-sample correction estimates half the squared change in dominant-label distributions under independent haul sampling. Four adjusted slope intervals included zero. Point slopes ranged from -4.31 to 1.38 score points per C. The correction removed 47-78 percent of mean direct scores under this measure. This is not a measured field-error share. Lag, weighting, transition and tie checks retained the uncertain result. Short series, spatial dependence, catchability, survey changes and coarse surface temperature limit inference. The tests do not measure pollution or establish a causal climate effect. Code, aggregate evidence, source hashes and independent checks are included. External catch records and derived count databases stay outside the signed package.

dominant taxon · trawl survey · temperature change · observation bias · finite-sample correction · null result