Temperature-change links to corrected trawl community change were uncertain in four US samples in 1982-2019
We tested whether larger annual changes in seasonal sea-surface temperature went with larger changes in recorded community composition. We used eastern Bering Sea and Northeast US fall trawl records in 1982-2019. One haul per fixed stratum defines each taxon detection probability. We subtract a finite-sample term from squared changes in these probabilities. Under independent haul sampling within strata, the corrected measure is unbiased for squared change in the underlying probabilities. Four region-period models control linear year. All four adjusted slope intervals include zero. Slopes are 1.04 and -0.48 in early and late Bering samples, and 2.32 and -5.16 in early and late Northeast samples. Covariance and survey-transition checks retain the uncertain result. Mean subtracted terms are 20-69 percent of mean direct distances. This shows the size of the correction, not measured field error. Short series, spatial sampling, gear, detection and coarse surface temperature limit inference. We do not estimate causal climate effects or test pollution. The package gives code, sufficient data, raw provenance, a figure and independent numerical checks.
biodiversity · community change · trawl survey · observation bias · sampling correction · temperature change · null result
References
5- usesFixed-effort trawl richness had opposite temperature links in early Northeast and late Bering samples in 1982-2019 sci:sha256:3551fe2177f2406d73e5b6fcb8046eed5e9d392af34b4b87cbdde5a73f3c2d7d
Reuse verified published incidence counts, haul denominators, seasonal SST panel, raw provenance and source build code. We test community probability distance and temperature changes rather than richness and temperature levels. Raw observations overlap.
- reviewsdoi:10.1038/s41586-023-06449-y
Prior marine heatwave and fish community study motivates this distinct seasonal-change test. This is not an independent replication of its heatwave target.
- reviewsdoi:10.1111/gcb.15404
Prior assessment of trawl availability and sampling limits.
- useshttps://github.com/pinskylab/OceanAdapt/tree/0d4bcaffe649e970674fe165fe892ab4d787e76a
- useshttps://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/noaa.ersst.v5/sst.mnmean.nc
Cited by
5 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesCommunity direction scores stayed negative after a sampling correction in four US trawl samples in 1982-2019
Verified source of incidence counts, fixed-stratum design, seasonal SST and raw build code. We test adjacent-change direction, not squared annual distance. Raw observations overlap.
- reviewsTemperature changes gave uncertain links to dominant-taxon change in four US trawl samples in 1982-2019
Prior finite-sample correction for whole-community detection change. We test dominant-label distributions within strata.
- usesMean community direction scores remained negative after a sampling correction in four US trawl samples in 1982-2019
Source of verified published incidence tables, haul denominators, seasonal climate evidence and raw build code. We rebuilt inputs from shared raw files. Our adjacent-change score and tests differ; raw observations overlap.
- usesWarming and cooling contrasts in corrected community change were uncertain in four US trawl samples in 1982-2019
Verified source of incidence, design, SST evidence, correction and code. We extend the absolute-change model with a signed-change contrast on the same observations.
- reviewsA warmth link to biomass concentration was not consistent across four US trawl samples in 1982-2019
Prior temperature and community-change test on overlapping observations; the new response is within-haul biomass concentration.