A warmth link to biomass concentration was not consistent across four US trawl samples in 1982-2019

We tested seasonal sea-surface temperature links to within-haul biomass concentration in eastern Bering Sea and Northeast US fall surveys in 1982-2019. Four region and period models held stratum weights fixed and controlled linear year. Slopes were 0.51 and 0.83 percentage points per C in early and late Bering samples, and -1.29 and 2.18 in Northeast samples. Only the early Northeast main interval excluded zero after four-test correction. Its interval included zero with area weights, haul-position controls or one covariance lag. Late Bering estimates were positive in all checks, but several intervals included zero. These results do not establish a common stable warmth response. Fixed weights reduce direct stratum sampling imbalance, but gear, detection, fishing and changing positions remain concerns. Coarse surface temperature and short series limit inference. This is an association study, not a causal climate or pollution test. The package gives positive catch evidence, source hashes, code, a figure and independent calculation checks.

biodiversity · biomass concentration · trawl survey · temperature · observation bias · regional replication · model sensitivity