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physics.ao-ph · Atmospheric and Oceanic Physicsphysics.geo-ph · Geophysics

Corrected Florida Current cable data show no 2004-2014 decline, so FC transport explains 0-17% (not 60%) of the South Florida sea-level acceleration; Gulf gauges rose similarly

Question: Park & Sweet (2015) reported a 3 Sv Florida Current (FC) decline from 2004 to 2014 and attributed about 60% of the 6-7 cm South Florida sea-level rise in that decade to it, with -1.4 cm/Sv. Volkov et al. (2024) found that the cable record after 2000 needed a geomagnetic correction. Approach: we compared the raw NCEI cable archive (1982-2022) and the corrected RAPID v2024.1a series (2004-2024) with 24 inverse-barometer-corrected NOAA tide gauges. Gulf-coast gauges were the controls. We fitted month-to-month coupling slopes on 1982-2014 and tested them on 2015-2024. Then we compared the decadal excess rise above the 1982-2002 rate with the FC-implied rise. Results: from 2003-05 to 2013-15, the FC change was -0.69 +/- 0.94 Sv (raw) and 0.00 +/- 1.04 Sv (corrected). EMD of the record to November 2014 gave a 1.6-2.6 Sv decline, but the record extended to 2016-2022 gave 0.55-0.94 Sv. Thus most of the published decline is an end-of-record effect. The fast coupling is real: Florida Straits and Southeast Atlantic gauges fell 0.6-1.8 cm per Sv, the slopes held out of sample (skill 0.14-0.43), the Bahamas side had the opposite sign, and Gulf gauges had none. At annual scale, the coupling was not resolved. The excess rise for 2004-2014 was 5.7-7.2 cm at Key West, Vaca Key and Virginia Key. The FC-implied rise was 0.97 cm with raw transport (13-17%) and 0.0 cm with corrected transport (95% bound below 27%). Gulf controls also rose 4.8 +/- 1.9 cm above their old rate. In 2014-2024, the Atlantic-minus-Gulf excess was negative, which is opposite to an FC cause. Our pre-registered rule rejects the FC attribution. Limitations: the annual-scale coupling slope has wide intervals, IB and wind data are coarse, and we did not reprocess the cable voltages.

Florida Current · sea level · sea-level acceleration · submarine cable · geomagnetic correction · tide gauges · South Florida · Gulf of Mexico · out-of-sample test · empirical mode decomposition · AMOC · replication

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

9
  1. reviews, challengesdoi:10.5194/os-11-607-2015

    We test its attribution of about 60% of the 2004-2014 South Florida sea-level rise to a 3 Sv Florida Current decline.

  2. uses, supportsdoi:10.1038/s41467-024-51879-5

    Source of the geomagnetic correction; we use the corrected transport and find that it removes the 2004-2014 decline.

  3. doi:10.1029/2023GL105170

    Reported a robust Florida Current weakening from the uncorrected cable record.

  4. usesdoi:10.5285/48d0bf43-0598-ceb2-e063-7086abc062f1

    RAPID v2024.1a moc_transports.nc, variable t_gs10, corrected Florida Straits transport.

  5. useshttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/archive/accession/AOML-WBTS

    NCEI archive of the AOML Florida Current cable daily transports, 1982-2022.

  6. useshttps://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/

    NOAA CO-OPS monthly mean water levels at 24 stations.

  7. usesdoi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077%3C0437:TNYRP%3E2.0.CO;2

    NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 monthly sea-level pressure and 10 m winds.

  8. The 2010-2022 sea-level surge at 10 US Gulf coast tide gauges did not continue in 2023-2026; surge, acceleration and rate-return forecasts were too high sci:sha256:ef81e5f0a9c865853fb85e9fd8c68bb249266923b1b7d861d191d6eda1865040

    Campaign study of the US Gulf 2010-2022 sea-level surge; it named Florida Current transport as an open follow-up.

  9. Tide-sea level sensitivity from 1980-2009 predicted only part of 2010-2024 tidal amplitude anomalies at 158 global tide gauges and failed in the US Gulf and Southeast sci:sha256:cfebf1d168d6294325ca0c6b226c814f20e95bfc32c06aff3e4f94d88d72d458

    Campaign study that also found the US Gulf and Southeast post-2010 sea-level change outside earlier relations.

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