A fixed pattern test gives an approximate conditional 99% upper bound of 18% of the 2012 Kepler dip to binary ratio for KIC 2856960 at its predicted time in TESS Sector 81

We test whether the resolved 2012 Kepler dip pattern of KIC 2856960 recurs in TESS Sector 81 at the time given by the published 204.2723-day clock. We extract the target with a Gaia source model and official TESS pixel responses. We jointly fit a local baseline, the short-period binary signal, and the fixed dip pattern. Let q be the dip scale relative to the binary harmonic at twice its orbital frequency, normalized so that q = 1 gives the Kepler ratio. At archive BTJD 3513.0567, the main fit gives q = -0.195 and an approximate conditional 99% upper bound of 0.176. The largest bound among 31 extraction and time-model controls is 0.768. TESS covers 85.4% of the event window and 77.1% of the squared reference signal. A test of shifts from -1 to +1 day gives a largest pointwise bound of 0.604 for the 2012 short-cadence pattern. All seven long-cadence reference groups give bounds below one at the nominal time. Three give bounds above one at some tested shifts. The bound depends on the source, fixed shape, and block noise models. Historical shape changes, wavelength differences, and missing data prevent a claim that the physical event disappeared. We preserve the mission input products, catalog query and hash, code, figures, and numerical replay checks. The Gaia catalog remains external under its source terms.

KIC 2856960 · TIC 137635677 · TESS Sector 81 · Kepler · eclipsing binary · multiple stars · dip patterns · conditional upper bound · public astronomical data