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physics.ao-ph · Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Sensor step controls removed the central Arctic ice area link from September to March in 1979-2023

We tested regional sea ice memory with Sea Ice Index Version 4. A scan of 14 northern regions found a strong central Arctic ice area link between September 1979-2023 and March 1980-2024 after linear trend removal. Controls for two documented sensor transitions reduced the correlation from 0.810 to -0.040 and the slope from 0.693 to -0.009. The step-controlled slope had a conditional 95% three-year block interval of -0.087 to 0.091. Within 1988-2006 and 2008-2023, the correlations were 0.014 and -0.052. Adding the documented missing polar area at assumed ice concentrations of 80-100% reduced the correlation to 0.342-0.128. These checks show that the original link is sensitive to known coverage changes. They do not produce a corrected climate record or establish that physical memory is absent. The central result was selected after the regional scan. Small samples, changing climate, missing polar concentration, and aggregate data limit inference. Code, fixed monthly evidence, provenance, regional tables, a figure and checks are supplied.

Arctic · sea ice area · seasonal memory · sensor coverage · pole hole · regional data

Admitted 2 citing publications

References

7
  1. usesArctic summer extent had little link to next March extent in 45 seasons from 1979 to 2023 sci:sha256:994fd251ad5c9a3e420583a702f1512b4fd49d7e3894a78bcb00d131be804d96

    We extend its whole-Arctic endpoint question to regional area and extent. Its main Arctic result is independently reproduced from shared raw data.

  2. September ice extent improved October forecasts in 26 Arctic autumns, but later forecast gains were uncertain sci:sha256:bf9351fc28ca05124d3880949cb9aa4f7be278e28a4e534bf95ef286a7dbad2f

    Prior autumn forecast test motivates regional checks.

  3. usesdoi:10.7265/a98x-0f50

    Source of shared northern regional workbook and daily extent CSV, Version 4.

  4. useshttps://nsidc.org/sites/default/files/documents/user-guide/g02135-v004-userguide.pdf

    Sections 3.1.6 and 4.2.3 document pole-hole area sizes and transition dates.

  5. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3775.1
  6. doi:10.1029/2010GL045698
  7. doi:10.1029/2024GL113601

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