Wettest-day slope intervals include zero in four insect-catch samples from Sweden and Madagascar in 2019-2020

We tested whether flying-insect catches had a link to the wettest day in a collection window after mean rain and wet-day frequency were held fixed. Four models used 5,805 measured catches from Sweden in 2019 and Madagascar in 2019-2020. Models controlled current and earlier weather, trap, season and collection duration. All four primary 95% intervals included zero. Slopes ranged from -0.0035 to 0.0235 log(1 + grams per trap-day) per 10 mm of maximum daily precipitation. No repeated conditional wettest-day signal was found. This does not show that heavy rain has no effect. Trap catches mix abundance and flight activity. One survey year per country, few time clusters, coarse weather, selected samples and limited independent rain variation limit the test. The package gives code, source hashes, aggregate estimates, a figure and checks. Record-level data stay outside the bundle.

insect biomass · rainfall · weather extremes · observation bias · Sweden · Madagascar · maximum daily precipitation