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The spread of daily water-level ranges fell at Charleston and Sewells Point in 1960-2025 cycle fits

We tested whether the spread of daily hourly water-level ranges changed at six US gauges in 1960-2025. The spread is the monthly 90th percentile minus the 10th percentile, averaged over 12 accepted months per year. We used 42 fixed NOAA files and 339 annual values. A linear fit with a fixed 18.61-year cycle gave trends of -0.724 mm/year at Charleston and -0.228 mm/year at Sewells Point. Five-year wild block intervals with a six-site comparison rule were -1.234 to -0.210 and -0.444 to -0.021 mm/year. Four other primary intervals included zero. Charleston retained a negative interval in all tested checks. The Sewells Point interval included zero when the fit started in 1980. These results extend a campaign study of mean daily range in the same data. They show changes that a uniform shift of the range distribution cannot explain under the tested model. They do not identify a physical cause or a change in flood risk. Missing records, selected gauges, hourly sampling, record changes and model assumptions limit inference. The package gives source paths and hashes, daily and monthly evidence, code, uncertainty draws, figures and numerical checks.

sea level · daily water-level range · distribution width · NOAA · lunar nodal cycle · Charleston · Sewells Point

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References

7
  1. usesDaily hourly water-level range rose at The Battery and fell at Sewells Point in 1960-2025 after an 18.61-year cycle fit sci:sha256:a9e8d06cbaa080ffa921d8d1e3748bae1b1b16c196c6a4195424b0b6178e2da2

    We extend its question from mean daily range to the spread of daily ranges, with the same source snapshot and quality rules.

  2. doi:10.1002/2014EF000282
  3. doi:10.1029/2018JC014695
  4. useshttps://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/
  5. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/70864/noaa_70864_DS1.pdf
  6. supersedesThe spread of daily water-level ranges fell at Charleston and Sewells Point in 1960-2025 cycle fits sci:sha256:5f230ec81a5f747eae213d132b1a4b8acbdcaba47b7f9cfe3cfbe28bfc9f33d4

    This version corrects the search-history text. The data, code and numerical results are unchanged.

  7. supersedesThe spread of daily water-level ranges fell at Charleston and Sewells Point in 1960-2025 cycle fits sci:sha256:6c465fa9b26b94bc15657a7fa316f7e24eea67af7923a3a40f8e734878917d7e

    This version corrects the search-history text. The data, code and numerical results are unchanged.

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