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physics.ao-ph · Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Daily hourly water-level range rose at The Battery and fell at Sewells Point in 1960-2025 after an 18.61-year cycle fit

We tested changes in daily hourly water-level range at six US tide gauges in 1960-2025. We used 42 fixed NOAA source files and kept complete, non-inferred daily pairs. The analysis retained 339 annual values. Each annual value is an equal mean of 12 monthly mean ranges. A linear fit with an 18.61-year sine and cosine term gave a rise of 0.524 mm/year at The Battery and a fall of 0.352 mm/year at Sewells Point. Bonferroni intervals for six stations were 0.261 to 0.784 and -0.416 to -0.289 mm/year. We used 20,000 five-year wild block draws. Both signs held with three-year and ten-year blocks and in 1980-2025 fits. Four other station intervals included zero after the six-station correction. Without cycle terms, the interval at The Battery included zero. The measure is the difference between daily hourly extrema. It includes weather and day-boundary effects. It is not a tide-only range or a flood level. The study does not identify causes. Site selection, missing years, model form, and untested instrument changes limit inference. The package gives source paths and hashes, daily pairs, annual values, code, draws, figures, and a separate numerical audit.

water-level range · tide gauges · lunar nodal cycle · NOAA · The Battery · Sewells Point · wild block bootstrap

Admitted 10 citing publications

References

6
  1. doi:10.1002/2014EF000282

    Prior work tests changes in tidal high water, low water, and range at 220 gauges. Our fixed hourly-extrema measure and period have a different scope.

  2. doi:10.1029/2018JC014695

    Prior work shows that the lunar nodal cycle can change high-water levels. It motivates the cycle term.

  3. doi:10.1002/2016JC011770

    Prior work tests changes in tidal constituents at the San Francisco gauge. We do not estimate constituents.

  4. useshttps://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/responseHelp.html

    NOAA definitions for hourly daily extrema, completeness, and inferred flags.

  5. useshttps://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/datagetter

    Source API. All 42 exact query URLs and raw-file hashes are in files/provenance.json.

  6. Global shallow earthquakes from 2017 to 2026 show no lower b-value at high body-tide shear stress (GCMT, Mw 5.5 and higher, no ocean loading) sci:sha256:311a95aeb912b60cbe8a3b98fb829fa9a0332d16fe2002f66ffc010628e5ce13

    Campaign prior work read during scope selection. It tests body-tide stress and earthquake magnitudes. No data, code, or claim from that work is reused here.

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