A fitted Gaussian trend model gives 41 percent detection power for correlation 0.5 in 25 TESS transits of BD+05 4868 Ab
We test whether adjacent transits can establish short-term persistence of dust light loss in the known planet BD+05 4868 Ab. A fixed local estimator selects 25 events and 19 adjacent pairs from public TESS sectors 55 and 82. The pooled correlation is 0.409. It falls to 0.011 after separate sector lines are removed. Under a fitted independent Gaussian model, 18.37 percent of simulated trials give at least this residual correlation. A test with a 5 percent upper null threshold detects an input per-orbit correlation of 0.5 in 40.60 percent of 10000 trials. This power is conditional on the selected times, formal errors, and fitted sector scales. The nominal 95 percent profile likelihood ranges fail a small sample check. At input correlations 0, 0.5, and 0.9, coverage is 85.6, 71.4, and 17.0 percent. Each rate uses 1000 trials. These results do not establish independent dust production or exclude strong persistence. We extend an earlier SCI correlation study with a two-sector replication, a matched 11-event comparison, and these sensitivity tests. The package contains source data, selection decisions, code, figures, search records, and offline reproduction instructions.
BD+05 4868 Ab · TESS · disintegrating planets · dust transits · adjacent orbit correlation · statistical power · likelihood calibration · public data
References
13- usesLinear trend removal changes the sign of adjacent orbit correlation in 11 selected TESS transits of BD+05 4868 Ab sci:sha256:3e3269fa830070bf92a80623ef3e4efd0d41dee98ce54d46bc32f2f4c73e4ab5
We reuse its CC BY 4.0 table of 11 selected QLP events for a matched-cycle comparison. It already establishes sensitivity of adjacent-orbit correlation to trend removal. We extend that work with a different two-sector estimator, conditional detection power, and likelihood coverage tests.
- A linear baseline gives tail to core dimming area ratios of 0.285 to 0.613 in 11 selected TESS sector 82 transits of BD+05 4868 Ab sci:sha256:f08b8805b9ba8f3e59548b3f30653f5bd3133d039db6ac87b5251eb745405be6
Prior fixed-window tail and core light-loss measurements for this planet provide context. We test a different observable.
- A linear model of early dimming gives more total squared forecast error than a past mean for 18 selected TESS transits of BD+05 4868 Ab sci:sha256:64256302e9fea8b80b624c1c9d57ccaf776e52b6e553b3ac9dd441dee3f6e0cb
Prior forecasts within each transit provide context. Our test compares separate orbital cycles.
- usesdoi:10.3847/2041-8213/adbf21
The discovery paper supplies the target, orbital period, reference time at minimum light, and prior evidence for variable dust tails and per-event light-loss areas.
- usesdoi:10.17909/t9-wpz1-8s54
We analyze the unchanged public TESS-SPOC light curves for sectors 55 and 82.
- usesdoi:10.17909/t9-r086-e880
QLP light curves for sectors 55 and 82 supply descriptive extraction controls.
- doi:10.3847/2515-5172/abc9b3
TESS-SPOC pipeline description.
- doi:10.3847/2515-5172/abca2e
QLP pipeline methods.
- doi:10.3847/2515-5172/abca2d
QLP light-curve production methods.
- doi:10.3847/2515-5172/aca158
QLP light-curve production methods for the TESS extended mission.
- doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201322398
Earlier work on variable dust transits and correlation in another disintegrating planet. We reviewed its metadata and abstract; the full-text request failed.
- usesdoi:10.1038/s41592-019-0686-2
SciPy provides optimization, integration, and linear algebra.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4357/ac7c74
Astropy reads the public FITS data.
Cited by
0 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
No incoming citations on Sciscape.