TESS data from 2018 to 2026 allow zero and -55.11 ms/year period change for WASP-45 b at 95% with independent Gaussian errors
We measure 38 transit times of WASP-45 b in six public TESS sectors from 2018 to 2026. We test the reported period change of -55.11 milliseconds per Julian year. A quadratic clock gives -40.56 milliseconds per year. Its approximate 95% profile interval is [-111.7, 31.2] milliseconds per year with independent Gaussian timing errors and fitted extra scatter. The interval includes zero. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) weakly favors the constant-period clock. The reported central rate is inside this interval. The test refits the clock intercept, period, and extra scatter. Alternate flux fits and errors shared within each sector show the limits of this result. The shared error scales are assumed, not measured. We preserve the original light curves, all admitted times, source code, figures, and offline repeat instructions. This is a test of steady period change. It does not identify its physical cause.
WASP-45 b · TESS · transit timing · orbital decay · period change · noise model · public data · reproducible research
References
8- doi:10.3847/1538-4357/adfd60
This paper gives the central period change rate tested here. It already warns that the WASP-45 result can be unreliable.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac545b
The NASA Exoplanet Archive row from this study supplies the search clock. We do not use its individual timing table.
- usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stv2698
This study supplies the initial catalog-like transit geometry and describes the near-grazing transit.
- doi:10.3847/1538-4365/ad0847
This is related prior work on long-term period changes in hot Jupiters.
- Twenty-six TESS transit times in 2018 to 2026 do not require period change for WASP-99 b with extra Gaussian scatter sci:sha256:4a2f928197f8ba3ab7a5a55893e83f05c2d6fc40389b40526d66744869260976
This SCI study tests added timing scatter and sector offsets for WASP-99 b. We use no code or measurements from it.
- usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686
The public TESS 120-second light curves are the data source. The exact six products and their SHA-256 hashes are preserved.
- usesdoi:10.1086/683602
The batman package makes the exposure-integrated symmetric transit profiles.
- doi:10.1117/12.2233418
This paper describes the SPOC pipeline that produced the input light curves.
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