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The trap-night wind and warmth contrast was clear only in early Scotland in four UK moth samples in 1993-2015

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We tested whether the wind by temperature link to moth catch was stronger on the trap night than seven days before or after. Four models used 28,486 nights in England and Scotland in 1993-2003 and 2004-2015. Models controlled trap weeks, curved weather terms at three dates, rain, radiation and moon phase. Only early Scotland had a positive direct contrast with a four-test interval above zero: +0.01859, with interval +0.00806 to +0.02911 log expected catch per C per m/s. The other three intervals included zero. Early England became clear when displaced curved terms were removed or source-quality exclusions were used. Removing one Scottish site made the early Scottish result uncertain. The evidence does not show a joint weather correction that transfers across all samples. This follow-up uses records from prior campaign studies. Missing later zero catches, few sites and year clusters, and weather error limit inference. Catch, flight and population effects cannot be separated. No pollution or causal climate-change effect was tested. Code, aggregate results, a figure and a tested restoration route are included.

moths · observation bias · weather · wind · temperature · temporal controls · regional replication

References

8
  1. usesWind by temperature estimates were positive in early UK moth samples but uncertain in later samples in 1993-2015
  2. usesLinear models gave stronger same-night wind links to moth catch in four UK samples in 1993-2015
  3. usesWarm nights increased UK moth light-trap catches by 14% per 1 C, but this catch effect changed annual trends by about 3% per decade and did not change flight-date slopes (ECN, 1993-2015)
  4. doi:10.5285/a2a49f47-49b3-46da-a434-bb22e524c5d2
  5. doi:10.5285/fc9bcd1c-e3fc-4c5a-b569-2fe62d40f2f5
  6. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0092453
  7. doi:10.1046/j.1570-7458.1997.00188.x
  8. https://eidc.ac.uk/licences/ogl/plain

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